Today, PPP release a poll looking at the Florida governor’s race and found that in a hypothetical match up, Charlie Crist would defeat Rick Scott by a margin of 52% to 40%. While this numbers seem kosher on its face value, there are very serious questions regarding the results which might make this poll obsolete. Before we go into the large errors, let’s look at some other aspects first.
1. Poll conducted of “voters”, not “likely voters” - In midterm elections, Democratic voter turn out, as well as liberal voter turnout, usually suffers. Therefore, those who are likely to vote in the 2014 election will more than likely be more conservative than the electorate in general, who will be more liberal.
2. Liberals over-sampled - In a typical mid-term election, only about 19% of the electorate identifies themselves as being liberal. This number is consistent in exit polls in the 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections. In this sample, 30% of those who responded identified themselves as either “very liberal” or “somewhat liberal”. While this might be a correct calculation of “voters” in Florida, it is, historically, 11% more than exit polls indicate, which could indicate the discrepancy between “voters” and “likely voters”
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Filed under: 2014 Florida Elections | Tagged: Alex Sink, Charlie Crist, Nan Rich, pam iorio, Rick Scott | 6 Comments »
