2008 Congressional Predictions

Since there is less than 72 hours before the first polls close, I felt that I needed to start posting my predictions. I will start with some of the Congressional races. Not only will I try to predict the winner, but pick the percentages as well.

Listed are the races to watch. I was going to add all, but it would just take too much time. So I will list the races to watch on Tuesday. So where we go!

Incumbent Party in bold.

* – Districts where the outcome is probably predictable, but don’t be surprised if it gets closer than expected.

Alabama 2nd – Jay Love (R) 51.6%, Bobby Bright (D)48.4% – Republican Hold

Alabama 5th – Parker Griffith (D) 53.5%, Wayne Parker (R) 46.5% – Democratic Hold

At-Large – Ethan Berkowitz (D) 52.2%, Don Young (R-Inc) 47.1%, Don Wright (AKIP) .7% – Democratic Pick-Up

Arizona 1st – Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 51.7%, Sydney Hay (R) 46.3%, Brent Maupin (I) 1%, Thane Eichenauer (L) 1% – Democratic Pick-Up

Arizona 3rd – John Shadegg (R-Inc) 52.2%, Bob Lord (D) 46.8%, Michael Shoen (L) 1% – Republican Hold

Arizona 5th – Harry Mitchell (D-Inc) 55%, David Schweikert (R) 44%, Warren Severin (L) 1% – Democratic Hold

Arizona 8th – Gabrielle Giffords (D-Inc) 54.5%, Timothy Bee (R) 44.5%, Paul Davis (L) 1% – Democratic Hold

California 3rd – Dan Lungren (R-Inc) 54%, Bill Durston (D) 46% – Republican Hold

California 4th – Charlie Brown (D) 51.2%, Tom McClintock (R) 48.8% – Democratic Pick-Up

California 11th – Jerry McNerney (D-Inc) 54.3%, Dean Andal (R) 45.7% – Democratic Hold

*California 26th – David Drier (R-Inc) 56%, Russ Warner (D) 46% – Republican Hold

California 50th – Brian Bilbray (R-Inc) 50.2%, Nick Leibham (D) 49.3%, Wayne Dunlap (L) .5% – Republican Hold

Colorado 4th – Betsy Markey (D) 52.3%, Marilyn Musgrave (R-Inc) 47.7% – Democratic Pick-Up

Connecticut 4th – Jim Himes (D) 50.2%, Christopher Shays (R-Inc) 49.8% – Democratic Pick-Up

Florida 8th – Alan Grayson (D) 53%, Ric Keller (R-Inc) 47% – Democratic Pick-Up

Florida 13th – Vern Buchanan (R-Inc) 56%, Christine Jennings (D) 44% – Republican Hold

Florida 16th – Tom Rooney (R) 62%, Tim Mahoney (D-Inc) 38% – Republican Pick-Up

Florida 21st – Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Inc), 50.1%, Raul Martinez (D) 49.9% – Republican Hold

Florida 24th – Susan Kosmas (D) 55%, Tom Feeney (R-Inc) 45% – Democratic Pick-Up

Florida 25th – Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Inc) 51.8%, Joe Garcia (D) 48.2% – Republican Hold.

Georgia 12th – John Barrow (D-Inc) 53%, John Stone (R) 47% – Democratic Hold

Iowa 4th – Tom Latham (R-Inc) 53%, Becky Greenwald (D) 47% – Republican Hold

Idaho 1st – Walt Minnick (D) 50.4%, Bill Sali (R-Inc) 49.6% – Democratic Pick-up

Illinois 8th – Melissa Bean (D-Inc) 53%, Steve Greenberg (R)47% – Democratic Hold

Illinois 10th – Dan Seals (D) 50.5%, Mark Kirk (R-Inc) 49.5% – Democratic Pick-Up

Illinois 11th – Debbie Halvorson (D) 51%, Marty Ozinga (R) 45%, Jason Wallace (G) 4% – Democratic Pick-Up

Illinois 14th – Bill Foster (D-Inc) 52%, Jim Oberweis (R) 48% – Democratic Hold

Indiana 3rd – Mark Souder (R-Inc) 49.1%, Mike Montagano (D) 48.9%, Bill Larsen (L) 2% – Republican Hold

*Indiana 4th – Steven Buyer (R-Inc) 57%, Nels Ackerson (D) 43% – Republican Hold

Indiana 9th – Baron Hill (D-Inc) 50%, Mike Sodrel (R) 45%, Eric Schansberg (L) 5% – Democratic Hold

Kansas 2nd – Nancy Boyda (D-Inc) 52%, Lynn Jenkins (R) 48% – Democratic Hold

Kentucky 2nd – Brett Guthrie (R) 53%, David Bowsell (D) 47% – Republican Hold

Maryland 1st – Andrew Harris (R) 53%, Frank Kratovil (D) 47% – Republican Hold

Michigan 7th – Mark Schauer (D) 53%, Tim Walberg (R-Inc) 47% – Democratic Pick Up

Michigan 9th – Gary Peters (D) 51%, Joe Knollenberg (R-Inc) 47%, Jack Kevorkian (I) 2% – Democratic Pick Up

*Minnesota 2nd – John Kline (R-Inc) 56%, Steve Sarvi (D) 44% – Republican Hold

Minnesota 3rd – Erik Paulsen (R) 47%, Ashwin Madia (D) 46%, David Dillon (MIP) 7% – Republican Hold

Minnesota 6th – Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) 48%, Michelle Bachmann (R-Inc) 46%, Bob Anderson (MIN) 6% – Democratic Pick Up

*Missouri 6th – Sam Graves (R-Inc) 52%, Kay Barnes (D) 46%, David Browning (L) 2% – Republican Hold

Missouri 9th – Blane Luetkemeyer (R) 52%, Judy Baker (D) 48% – Republican Hold

North Carolina 8th – Larry Kissel (D) 51%, Robin Hayes (R-Inc) 49% – Democratic Pick-Up

New Hampshire 1st – Carol Shea-Porter (D-Inc) 52%, Jeb Bradley (R) 48% – Democratic Hold

New Jersey 3rd – John Adler (R) 50.1%, Christopher Myers (R) 49.9% – Democratic Pick-Up

*New Jersey 5th – Scott Garrett (R-Inc) 54%, Dennis Shulman (D) 46% – Republican Hold

New Jersey 7th – Linda Stender (D) 49.2%, Leonard Lance (R) 48.8, Michael Hsing (I) 2% – Democratic Pick Up

New Mexico 1st – Martin Heinrich (D) 53%, Darren White (R) 47% – Democratic Pick Up

New Mexico 2nd – Harry Teague (D) 53%, Edward Tinsley (R) 47% – Democratic Pick Up

Nevada 3rd – Dina Titus (D) 51%, Jon Porter (R-Inc) 49% – Democratic Pick Up

New York 13th – Michael McMahon (D) 55%, Robert Straniere (R) 43%, Others 2% – Democratic Pick Up

New York 25th – Dan Maffei (D) 58%, Dan Sweetland (R) 42% – Democratic Pick Up

New York 26th – Chris Lee (R) 50.5%, Alice Kryzan (D) 49.5% – Republican Hold

New York 29th – Eric Massa (D) 52%, Randy Kuhl (R-Inc) 48% – Democratic Pick Up

Ohio 1st – Steve Driehaus (D) 50.1, Steve Chabot (R-Inc) 49.9% – Democratic Pick Up

Ohio 2nd – Jean Schmidt (R-Inc) 47%, Vic Wulsin (D) 46%, David Kirkorian (I) 7% – Republican Hold

Ohio 15th – Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 51%, Steven Stivers (R) 46%, Others 3% – Democratic Pick Up

Ohio 16th – John Boccieri (D) 54%, J. Kirk Schuring (R) 46% – Democratic Pick Up

Pennsylvania 3rd – Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 52%, Phil English (R-Inc) 48% – Democratic Pick Up

Pennsylvania 11th – Lou Barletta (R) 54%, Paul Kanjorski (D-Inc) 46% – Republican Pick Up

Pennsylvania 12th – Jack Murtha (D-Inc) 53%, William Russell (R) 47% – Democratic Hold

Pennsylvania 15th – Charles Dent (R-Inc) 52%, Sam Bennett (D) 48% – Republican Hold

*South Carolina 1st – Henry Brown (R-Inc) 56%, Linda Ketner (D) 44% – Republican Hold

Texas 10th – Michael McCaul (R-Inc) 53%, Larry Doherty (D) 47% – Republican Hold

Texas 22nd – Pete Olson (R) 54%, Nick Lampson (D-Inc) 46% – Republican Pick Up

Virginia 5th – Virgil Goode (R-Inc) 51.5%, Tom Perriello (D) 48.5% – Republican Hold

Virginia 11th – Gerry Connolly (D) 56%, Keith Fimian (R) 44% – Democratic Pick Up

Washington 4th – Doc Hastings (R-Inc) 52%, George Fearing (D) 48% – Republican Hold

Washington 8th – David Reichert (R-Inc) 50.4%, Darcy Burner (D) 49.6% – Republican Hold

Wisconsin 8th – Steve Kagen (D-Inc) 54%, John Gard (R) 46% – Democratic Hold

Wyoming At-Large – Cynthia Lummis (R) 50%, Gary Trauner (D) 48%, David Herbert (L) 2% – Republican Hold

Totals
Democratic Pick Ups: 27
Republican Pick Ups: 3
Net Gain: 24 Democrats

Democrats 260, Republicans 175

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