In one of the top targets for the GOP, Florida’s 8th Congressional District, which is currently held by Democrat Alan Grayson, is now being led by the Republican candidate the latest poll taken of the district.
Republican Dan Webster, former state Speaker of the House and State Senator, is leading Grayson 43% to 36% according to the Voter Survey Service poll, which is a Republican polling firm (list of clients). The TEA Party candidate, Peg Dunmire, polled 6%, and non-partisan candidate George Metcalfe, who has run a non-existent campaign, is polling 3%.
While these numbers have to worry some in the Grayson campaign, these numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt. First of all, how is a non-partisan candidate that hasn’t really campaigned, polled 3%? Kind of odd.
Second, the strength of the TEA Party candidate is unknown. In a poll conducted by the Grayson campaign, Dunmire polled around 20% (as “other” candidate). But in this poll, the TEA Party candidate only polled 6%. Therefore, what is the real support for Dunmire? We really don’t know.
Finally, Grayson is only polling 36%. That, again, seems low for a well-funded candidate in a very close district, no matter how “controversial” he is.
This is a poll that Dan Webster should relish. The TEA Party candidate isn’t strong, an unknown conservative is polling 3%, and Webster, it seems, is getting 100% of independent voters. Basically, this poll stinks.
Still, has the Taliban Dan Webster commercial hurt Grayson? It wasn’t exactly the most well thought out political commercial in the world. And hopefully, it won’t cost him the election.
Maybe in the next few weeks, we will see a poll that truly reflects the district. Both the conservative media and the Grayson campaign have released polls favoring their candidates. Hopefully a more accurate poll will be out soon.