Election 2010: Predictions for Colorado and Connecticut

Will Bennett be able to retain his seat in a week from now?

Yeah, I’m going to go ahead and start putting some state together for the sake of time. So, sorry Colorado and Connecticut, but you two are stuck together. Lets start with Colorado.

In the Colorado Governor’s race, we have an interesting battle. Democratic Mayor of Denver John Hickenlooper, Republican Dan Maes and former Republican Congressman and Presidential Candidate Tom Tancredo, running under the American Constitution Party, are running for Governor. Polls have been showing this race tightening up in the last few weeks. Hickenlooper had a decent lead over Tancredo about a month ago. But Tancredo has been able to creep up toward the top in the last two weeks.

Even with Tancredo moving even so closer to Hickenlooper, he has yet to move past the Democrat in any of the polls conducted. In addition, the lack of support for Maes in the polls also shows that former Maes supporters don’t exactly translate to automatic Tancredo supporters.

Still, even if Maes support has shifted to Tancredo, we don’t expect to see him win. Expect Hickenlooper to win this race. Our prediction is that Hickenlooper will get 47.3% of the vote, compared to 41% for Tancredo, while Republican Maes gets 11.7%.

In the other big statewide race, Ken Buck is taking on Senator Michael Bennett. While Bennett has been able to show some life in the last week, we really won’t know until the final polls come out on if Bennett has really strengthened. Still, Buck is looking more and more like an idiot on a daily basis.

Even with a possible shift toward Bennett, we do have Buck still winning this race. We expect Buck to get 51% of the major party vote while Bennett gets 49%.

Colorado also has two Congressional races to keep your eye on. In the 3rd Congressional district, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar’s brother, John Salazar, looks to be heading toward defeat according to many experts. The only problem in this race is that most of the polling has been done by Republican firms, which give State Representative Scott Tipton the lead. But three days ago, another polls released by Anzalone Liszt Research, a Democratic firm, has Salazar leading by eight points. Still, it is really hard to gauge this election.

Therefore, we are going with the money, and saying that Salazar holds on. We aren’t going to give a percentage prediction because the polls number are way too much off the chart. It is even hard to give a ballpark figure. But we say Salazar retains the seat.

The Colorado 4th might not treat Democrats as well as the 3rd. Honestly, this could be considered one of those seats that Democratic are not supposed to hold. But because of the Obama landslide two years ago, Democrats picked it up. Oh, that and the fact that Republican crazy Marilyn Musgrave was running.

Still, Democratic Congresswoman Betsy Markey isn’t running against Musgrave. Instead she is running against Colorado House Minority Whip Cory Gardner. Most political predictors expect this to be a GOP pickup. We agree with that assessment as well. And, like other sites, we don’t expect this to be pretty for the Democrats. We expect Gardner to win this race 53% to 47%.

The other state that we are covering in this post is Connecticut. The only real race to watch, and that is even stretching it, is to decide who will replace Chris Dodd in the U.S. Senate. And the answer is simple, Richard Blumenthal.

Wrestling executive Linda McMahon never really peaked in this election. She was also behind Blumenthal by a substantial margin in almost all the polls. And even with her millions of dollars, she has yet to close the gap. Expect this to be a 60% to 40% win for Blumenthal with the race being projected as soon as the polls close.

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