Today, the U.S. Senate race in Kentucky might have taken a turn in favor of the Democrats. After video was released of Ron Paul supporters assaulting a MoveOn.org supporter, public support for Paul and his campaign is expected to take a hit only seven days before the election.
And, of course, the U.S. Senate race between Rand Paul and Jack Conway is as heated as ever.
In recent polls, Paul has had the lead, but the margin has been getting smaller and smaller. And this week, there have been a few polls showing that the race is a virtual tie. So, how will it go?
The difference between my prediction method and, lets say, the prediction methods of Larry Sabato and Nate Silver is that I don’t go purely on numbers. I also use my gut to make my final decision. And in the past, my gut has helped me predict many races correct (example…Al Franken).
Therefore, I am saying that the actions of Tim Profitt and the other Rand Paul thugs will lead to a Conway victory on Election Day. Yes, unlike my other predictions that has quite a bit of mathematics involved, I am going with my gut on this one. Conway defeats Paul, but by a small margin. I can’t predict the margin, as I am going with my gut, but a small one nonetheless.
Now, lets look at the other race that is a toss-up in Kentucky, the 6th Congressional District. Congressman Ben Chandler has held this seat since 2004, and has won it by large margins since. But now, many of the political predictors consider this race a “pure toss up”.
But we are going against the trend and saying that this will be a solid Democratic victory for Chandler. We expect Chandler to win 55.5% of the vote, with Republican Andy Barr getting 44.5%.