Louisiana has always been considered a strange state when it comes to, well, everything. And when it come to elections, there is no exception. We don’t expect many changes in Louisiana, but there will be a few.
First, David Vitter is expected to retain his seat against Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon. Still, Melancon has been moving up in the polls. And what was considered a solid Republican victory is now starting to find its way into the toss-up category. But even with the resurgence of Melancon, the Political Hurricane prediction still has Vitter retaining his seat around the margin of 55% to 45%.
Of course, because Melancon is running for Senate, he is no longer running for Congress. His bayou-based district is expected to go solidly Republican, and we agree with that assessment as well.
Though while the Democrats are expected to lose 3rd Congressional District, they are expected to pick up the 2nd Congressional District, which rightfully belongs to the Democrats. Republican Congressman Joseph Cao won the seat two years ago in a runoff against scandal-ridden Congressman William Jefferson. And even with Jefferson’s problems, Cao won the district with less than 3% of the vote. This time around, we expect the Democrat, State Representative Cedric Richmond, to defeat Cao by a decent margin. We predict that Richmond will win this seat 59% to 41%.
Therefore, overall, we don’t expect there to be any real chances in the federal races in Louisiana.
Maryland is another state that is always ignored during these midterm elections. Democrats are always expected to dominate, and that is that. And this year, that is pretty much the case again. There is really only one race to watch, and that is the 1st Congressional District, which consists almost all or eastern Maryland. In 2008, Democrat Frank Kratovil pulled off an unexpected victory over State Senator Andrew Harris. This was one of those seats that Democrats were not expected to pick up. Basically, it was a bonus.
But this time around, Harris is running again and his campaign is a little more organized than before. And in recent polls, Harris is leading over Kratovil. But even with this lead, this race against will be closer than expected. Still, we expect that Harris will win this election with 51.5% of the vote to 48.5%