Both Mississippi and Missouri aren’t expected to see many changes on Election Day. Most of the races are going as expected. But there are two close races in these states that could determine the balance of power in both the House and the Senate.
Frist lets look at Missouri(a). Senator Kit Bond is retiring from the Senate, and two very strong candidates are looking to replace him. On the Republican side, House Minority Whip Roy Blunt is taking on Democrat Robin Carnahan. Yes, it seems like there is a Carnahan running for everything, no matter if alive or dead.
Unfortunately for Carnahan, her last name isn’t helping her in this race. We expect her to lose, and quite badly. We are predicting that Blunt will be elected to the Senate with 54% of the vote with Carnahan getting 44%.
While the race in Missouri might not be considered a shock, the race for the 4th Congressional District in Mississippi might be. Democratic Congressman Gene Taylor, who has alway been considered the most conservative Democrat in the House of Representatives, has a strong challenge from Republican State Representative Steve Palazzo. While many Democrats expected this race to be won easily by Taylor, Nate Silver is now projecting a Republican victory. I really don’t see this happening. This district has always been heavily Republican, yet Taylor wins time after time. In addition, Taylor is both outraising and outspending Palazzo.
But even with all of these factors, will the Democratic Party and the DCCC spend money to defend Taylor when time after time he refuses to vote for Nancy Pelosi (with the exception of one time)? CQ reported yesterday that the DCCC cut a check for the Taylor campaign. So, it looks like the party is actually behind Taylor, which might be the determining factor.
Therefore, we are still expecting a Taylor victory by a 53% to 47% vote total.
Also, in the Mississippi 1st Congressional District, Republicans are expected to gain the traditionally Dixiecrat district. Maybe Dixiecrats are finally leaving the Democratic Party and finally going to the GOP. I hope so.