Yes, I am connecting these two races together. As odd as it may sound, an early Rand Paul win, along with some other races projected early, might lead to a Harry Reid victory in Nevada.
So, hear me out.
The first polls in the evening that are to close are in the states of Indiana and Kentucky. Both of these states will close their polls at 4 PM Pacific Time (we are going with PDT because we are talking about Nevada).
In Kentucky, Rand Paul has even more of a lead since his supporters stomped on the head of a defenseless woman (which is damn sad). Still, between 4 PM and 4 PM PDT, Rand Paul should be projected the winning.
In addition, Dan Coats is expected to be projected the winner immediately in the Indiana Senate race. Again, this isn’t much of a surprise. But if right-wing news agencies like Fox News talk about how Brad Ellsworth was a “strong candidate”, then they might make this win look bigger for the GOP than it actually is.
While these projections are coming in, Democrats will be voting in Nevada. Democrats usually vote very early and in the mid-afternoon. Thus, this will give Reid the advantage on Election Day results.
At 5 PM, the Republican voter start turning up at the polls. But for the last hour to hour and a half, Republican voters have been hearing about a Rand Paul victory, a Dan Coats victory and how the GOP looks to be heading toward an impressive Election Day.
As many of these Republicans are driving home, could they consider not voting? Do they consider that, since the Republicans are doing well already in what are perceived as “close races”, that Sharron Angle has the race in the bag? Possibly.
There have been some elections where the time difference has make a big difference in the final result. Time after time, we see west coast races, while still being won by the Democrats, being a lot closer than expected because many voters think that the Democrats have already won.
And with Reid’s possible lead in early voting, early victories for the GOP could mean that Harry Reid might win by a few percent compared to, lets say, one percent.
Therefore, possible gains for the GOP in early elections might lead to a Reid victory. Not saying it will, but it is a little food for thought.