In the House, I differed vastly with the experts. In the Senate, it numbers were a little closer. In the Governors races, the numbers are nearly the same.
While there has been little change over the last few weeks, there are some races that have gone from being solid for one candidate to being a virtual toss-up.
One of those states is Ohio, where former Republican Congressman John Kasich has been leading incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland in most of the polls leading up to Election Day. But in the last two weeks, Strickland has closed the polls to within a very small margin.
Both Nate Silver and Larry Sabato have predicted that Kasich will win this race. But I am going out on a limb. With the momentum that Strickland has picked up, and the fact that Kasich can’t seem to shake him off, The Political Hurricane is picking Strickland as the winner. Again, it could be a very long night in Ohio.
The only other race in which there was disagreement was the Oregon’s Governor’s race. Larry Sabato has the Republican, Chris Dudley, winning the race. Yet both Nate Silver and myself have Democrat John Kitzhaber winning. Recent polls look to be giving Kitzhaber the edge, and we are going with that number.
Otherwise, all three of us agree on the rest of the governor’s races. Still, keep an eye on Illinois…there might be a surprise there.