While our predictions are quite a bit off from what most of the experts call in the House, almost all the predictions in the Senate seem to be the same.
Just like in the House races, there are some predictions that a person can do purely on numbers and polling. On the other hand, there are predictions that can only be done by a gut feeling. And in the case of our predictions, the gut is starting to show its presence.
For example, I just don’t feel that Harry Reid will lose to Sharron Angle. Yes, the early voting has come in, at it favors Reid (we think), which is a good sign. But I just feel that Nevada voters are smarter than voters in, lets say, Kentucky, who support Rand Paul more even though his campaign supporters like to beat up innocent, defenseless women. Well, I never did have any hope for Kentucky anyway. I wanted to, but in the end I just didn’t.
Therefore, some of the predictions that I make in the last few weeks regarding some of the Senate races have changed. While they have only changed slightly, they have changed nonetheless.
As far as disagreements between this site, Nate Silver and Larry Sabato, I have picked the Democrat to win in Colorado and Nevada, with Lisa Murkowski winning as a write-in in Alaska.
Both Sabato and Silver picked the Republicans in Colorado and Nevada.
As far as Alaska, Silver has Joe Miller winning the seat, while Sabato basically refuses to give a prediction on this race. Instead he says on his website “It matters to Alaskans whether Miller or Murkowski takes the seat, but not to the Crystal Ball’s tally.” Kind of a cop-out if you ask me.
Still, I project the Republicans will pick up six seats in the Senate. Those seats will be in Arkansas, Illinois (a change from our earlier prediction), Indiana, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
If any of these races are going to be close it will be the Pennsylvania and Illinois Senate races. Don’t be surprised if these races go to a recount.
But even with these Republican pick ups, the Democrats should still retain the Senate.