Political Hurricane Predictions: Post-Election

Well, it was a bad night for Democrats in the House of Representatives. While the tidal wave did hit the House, it did not hit the Senate. Still, with most of the results in, we can finally look at how our predictions held up against the so-called “experts”.

First, lets look at the House. All the experts were not predicting this big of a sweep. Most models had Democrats losing between 45 and 54 seats. Of course, we were the optimistic website and went with the 45. But when all was said and done, our predictions compared to Larry Sabato and Nate Silver were close. Here is our correct projections for the House:

Silver: 415
Sabato: 413
Trotter: 411

In the Senate, it was a different story. Some of the others were predicting Tea Party candidates to win that I wasn’t too sure about. Both Silver and Sabato picked Sharron Angle and Ken Buck. We went with Bennett and Reid. And, if the write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski still wins the Alaska Senate race, I am proud to say that the Political Hurricane has predicted 100% in Senate races in both 2008 and 2010. Here is, as of now, the final tally.

Trotter: 36
Silver: 33
Sabato: 33

In the governor’s races, all three of us pretty much had the same predictions. Luckily for the State of Illinois, Pat Quinn won, which all three of us predicted a Bill Brady win. Still, I thought that Quinn could have a surprise win, which he did.

We did have a few disagreements. First, at the last-minute, I picked Ted Strickland to win. The other two picked John Kasich, who did win. In Florida, both I and Sabato picked Rick Scott to win, while Silver picked Alex Sink. Finally, in Oregon, Silver and I picked Democrat John Kitzhaber to win over Chris Dudley, who was Sabato’s choice.

So, in the end, the governor’s races look like this:

Trotter: 35
Silver: 35
Sabato: 35

So, what was the final count? How many races did we each get correct?

Silver (NY Times): 483
Sabato (UVA): 481
Trotter (unemployed, and is a much cheaper option for UVA and the NY Times): 482

Therefore, Nate Silver wins this round by one race. And, trust me New York Times, I can give you the same prediction accuracy at half the cost. Promise!

And UVA, this is the second election cycle that this website out-predicted Larry Sabato. Again, I am the cheaper option. Promise!

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3 thoughts on “Political Hurricane Predictions: Post-Election

  1. Pingback: Quick Hits » Florida Progressive Coalition Blog -

  2. Pingback: Dave Trotter’s Predictions for Federal Races. « The Political Hurricane – Florida Political Blog.

  3. Pingback: Archive: 2012 Federal Races | How The World Votes

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