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We have made two changes from last weeks projections, moving SD-34 from leans Democrat to Toss Up and SD-7 from leans Republican to likely Republican.
Based on today’s projections the Democrats would win 13 seats, the Republicans would win 25 and 2 races are a toss up.
Last week two developments led to the changes to our ratings:
Senate District 7
Brian Scarborough dropped out of the race this week despite being among the top Dem fundraisers in the state. We’ve previously discussed this district favoring a Clay County Republican over an Alachua County Democrat but this is a district with a Democratic base of about 40-45% of the vote. The problem is getting to 50% and Scarborough felt it could not be done. Scarborough told the Gainesville Sun that the district was drawn to favor a Clay County Republican and that is the reason he withdrew from the race. Thus we move this race from LEANS REPUBLICAN TO LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Senate District 34
A poll was released this past week that indicates Republican Ellyn Bogdanoff is ahead of Maria Sachs. We have questions about the methodology of and possible bias of this poll but the fact remains this race is competitive. Also this week, Sachs lost some GOP fundraising support as two of her most prominent local supporters claim to not know she was running against Senator Bogdanoff. Thus we move this race from LEANS DEMOCRATIC TO TOSS UP.