Updated Congressional Ratings

These DCCC ads seem to have not made a difference in CD-16

Changes this week:

We’ve shifted the CD-16 race from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Despite continues scandal and one of the best progressives in the state as opposition, Congressman Vern Buchanan’s lead is growing almost insurmountable according to recent polling. Given that it is unlikely a smoking gun will be revealed relative to the Buchanan scandals between now and election day, we are moving the race, although as with every ranking this is subject to chance.

In the “Leans Democratic” column we have left CD-2 the race between incumbent Steve Southerland and Former Sentate Democratic Leader Al Lawson. However, we have several words of caution about this race. It partially fits the profile, albeit later in time of many southern congressional districts that flipped from Dem to GOP in the 1990s. In those seats, once the seat flipped, the change was affirmed in the next election, and untouchable for the Democrats afterwards. Their have been some exceptions: Congressional seats in North Carolina have tended to flip back and forth between the parties since the 1980s, and seats which center around capital cities are always difficult for Republicans to solidify. The GOP has still failed to capture the seats which contain Raleigh (with the exception of one term) and Nashville for example, but those are much bigger cities than Tallahassee.

Another red flag is the recent State House poll in HD-7 much of which overlaps with this seat which shows as has become traditional in this area that a quarter of registered Democrats will be voting for the GOP candidate. However, that seat does not include Tallahassee, and that could be construed as positive for the Democrats. The again, Panama City is not in that seat either, but the poll gives us a taste of what is happening in rural areas.

We have left the much discussed Allen West-Patrick Murphy race in the toss-up column, but it seems as if West has positive momentum in this Treasure Coast area seat where Obama is running behind his 2008 numbers according to polling data. Murphy will be dependent on Obama voters and moderate Republicans to win.

Ratings below the jump.

Safe Democratic

FL-5 (Brown)

FL- 14 (Castor )

FL- 20 (Hastings)

FL-21 (Deutch)

FL-23 (Wasserman-Schultz)

FL-24 (Wilson)

Likely Democratic

FL-9 (Open)

Leans Democratic

FL-22 (Open)

FL- Senate (Nelson)

Toss Up

FL-18 (West)

Leans Republican

FL-2 (Southerland)

FL-10 (Webster)

FL-26 (Rivera)

Likely Republican

FL-7 (Mica)

FL-13 (Young)

FL-16 (Buchanan)

Safe Republican

FL-1 (Miller)

FL-3 (Stearns*)

FL-4 (Crenshaw)

FL- 6 (Open)

FL- 8 (Posey)

FL-11 (Nugent)

FL-12 ( Bilirakis)

FL-15 (Ross)

FL-17 (Rooney)

FL-19 (Open)

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)

FL 27 (Ros-Lehtinen)

* lost primary to Ted Yoho

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3 thoughts on “Updated Congressional Ratings

  1. You cannot believe all the polls. Obama will get at least 48% in the Fitzgerald district meaning it’ll be close. Coattails and straight ticket voting.

  2. Pingback: Sunburn for 9/10 — A morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics | Saint Petersblog

  3. All of Fitzgerald’s negative attacks have backfired. And, he hasn’t had a policy contribution at all… meaning all people know about him are his mean spirited and derisive attacks. People want better

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