House Race Ratings: September 12th

The Democrats entered the fall campaign having already more or less secured 34 seats (those we term as Safe or Likely Democratic) while the GOP had only secured 54 seats (Safe or Likely Republican) meaning they have to defend far more seats in competitive races than anytime in the last decade plus. However, we have moved the HD-27 race where Dennis Mulder was the Democratic nominee has been moved to “Likely Republican” as Phil Giorno’s record as Volusia DEC Chair coupled with his late entry means the GOP is almost certain to win this seat. We have also moved HD-72 to the “Leans GOP” column because Democratic nominee Liz Alpert is having trouble raising local money in Sarasota and seems unable to replicate her fundraising prowess when she ran in the 1990s in the former HD-56 (similar to the new HD-59.) We are considering moving HD-66, where Republican Larry Ahern faces a strong challenge from Democrat Mary Lou Ambrose to “toss-up” as the Democratic challenger appears to be gaining traction locally. We have kept HD-7 in the “toss-up” column although recent polling indicates Republican Halsey Beshears has opened up an impressive lead.

Many of the seats that are in the Leans Republican category are truly “toss-up” seats where the Democrats would have had an excellent chance to win had they recruited a top tier challenger OR were willing to spend money trying to gain the seat. Several of the “toss-up” races would be Leans Democrat again if the candidate recruitment were better and fundraising commitment were higher from the party. According to a TPH estimate we conducted after the new maps were finalized, the Democrats should win 50-52 House seats, the GOP 55-57, and the rest should be up for grabs. This means that the chamber itself should be a target for a Democratic takeover within a few election cycles.

We will be updating this every Wednesday from now until October 31st.

Leans Rep Likely Rep Safe Rep  Leans NPA
HD 24 (Open) HD 27 (Open) HD 1  (Ingram)  HD 34 (Smith)
HD 29 (Dorworth) HD 51 (Crisafulli) HD 2  (Broxson)
HD 35 (Schenk) HD 55 (Open) HD 3   (Ford)
HD 41 (Wood) HD 58 (Open) HD 4   (Gaetz)
HD 42 (Horner) HD 74 (Holder) HD 5  (Coley)
HD 50 (Open) HD 77 (Open) HD 6   (Patronis)
HD 53 (Tobia) HD 10  (Porter)
HD 59 (Open) HD 11 (Adkins)
HD 65 (Nehr) HD 12 (Ray)
HD 66 (Ahern) HD 15 (Davis)
HD 71 (Boyd) HD 16 (McBurney)
HD 72 (Pilon) HD 17 (Renuart)
HD 85 (Rooney) HD 18 (Open)
HD 93 (Moritas) HD 19 (Van Zant)
HD 114 (Fresen) HD 22 (Open)
HD 23 (Baxley)
HD 25 (Open)
HD 28 (Brodeur)
HD 31 (Nelson)
HD 32 (Metz)
HD 33 (O’Toole)
HD 36 (Open)
HD 37 (Corcoran)
HD 38 (Weatherford)
HD 39 (Open)
HD 40 (McKeel)
HD 44 (Precourt)
HD 52  (Workman)
HD 54  (Mayfield)
HD 56  (Albritton)
HD 57 (Open)
HD 60 (Young)
HD 64 (Grant)
HD 73 (Steube)
HD 75 (Roberson)
HD 76 (Open)
HD 78 (Open)
HD 79 (Open)
HD 80 (Hudson)
HD 82 (Open)
HD 83 (Harrell)
HD 103 (Open)
HD 105 (Trijillo)
HD 106 (Passidomo)
HD 110 (Oliva)
HD 111 (Open)
HD 116 (Open)
HD 118 (Artiles)
HD 119 (Nunez)
Toss Up
HD 7  (Open)
HD 21 (Open)
HD 30 (Plakon)
HD 47 (Open)
HD 63 (Harrison)
HD 67 (Hooper)
HD 68  (Open)
HD 69  (Open)
HD 89 (Hager)
HD 112 (Open)
HD 115 (Bileca)
HD 120 (Open)
Safe Dem Likely Dem Leans Dem
HD 8 (Williams) HD 43 (Open) HD 9 (Rehwinkel-Vasilinda)
HD 13 (Fullwood) HD 62 (Cruz) HD 49 (Open)
HD 14  (Jones) HD 86 (Pafford) HD 84 (Open)
HD 20 (Open) HD 90 (Berman)
HD 26 (Taylor) HD 104 (Open)
HD 45 (Open)
HD 46 (Open)
HD 48 (Open)
HD 61 (Reed)
HD 70 (Rouson)
HD 81 (Open)
HD 87 (Open)
HD 88 (Open)
HD 91 (Slosberg)
HD 92 (Clarke-Reed)
HD 94 (Thurston)
HD 95 (Rogers)
HD 96 (Waldman)
HD 97 (Open)
HD 98 (Open)
HD 99 (Schwartz)
HD 100 (Gibbons)
HD 101 (Open)
HD 102 (Open)
HD 107 (Watson)
HD 108 (Campbell)
HD 109 (Stafford)
HD 113 (Open)
HD 117 (Open)

6 thoughts on “House Race Ratings: September 12th

  1. I’d have to seriously question HD 93 (Moritas) in the Leans Rep category. While this district’s demographics have improved under redistricting, it still has a Rep advantage and the Dem challenger and virtually unknown Gerri Ann Capotosto has shown no fund raising abilities (only $5K raised) to challenge a sitting incumbent who has already raised over $100K.

    Likely Rep is a much better category for this race in Broward county.

  2. Agree on this one. Also Hager should be “leans rep” and Rooney “likely rep.”

    I think Plakon may be “leans dem” from what I am hearing.

    Other one that I have an issue with is 112. That is “leans or likely rep” regardless of what the party says.

  3. Keep an eye on the Keys seat. Whitney is proving to be a shaky candidate and the Republican is well funded and supported.

  4. I could see how 114 and 115 could be either ranked “leans Rep” or “toss up,” but I don’t see that they should be ranked differently from each other.
    HD114 is 35.5D and 39.4R and includes thousands of NPA Univ. of Miami students.
    HD115 is 35.1D and 39.6R.

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