House Race Ratings: September 19th

The Democrats entered the fall campaign having already more or less secured 34 seats (those we term as Safe or Likely Democratic) while the GOP had only secured 54 seats (Safe or Likely Republican) meaning they have to defend far more seats in competitive races than anytime in the last decade plus. This week we have four changes to the ratings which are detailed below. Next week we will also begin a feature called ratings with no “toss-ups” which will indicate which was a toss-up election is most likely to go based on current factors.

HD 65

Rep. Peter Nehr came through a bruising primary and will face Carl Zimmerman a three time Democratic nominee in this district. Nehr is polling well in the district and his moderate reputation including previous support for Charlie Crist appears to be helping him with Independents in this area. We’ve moved this race to “Likely Republican.”

HD 66

Republican  Rep. Larry Ahern faces a strong challenge from Democrat Mary Lou Ambrose. We’ve moved this race to “toss-up” as the Democratic challenger appears to be gaining traction locally and also had polled well in recent samples.

HD 93

Democrat Geri Ann Capotosto has failed to gain any significant headway against Rep. George Moritas in this marginally Republican district. We’re moving this race to “Likely Republican.”

HD114
This district where Alex Sink got 49.27%  2010, is trending Democratic. Incumbent Republican Erik Fresen has been dogged by ethical controversies and Democrat Ross Hancock is doing well walking the district and picking up support from younger NPAs and University of Miami college students. We’ve moved this district to “toss-up.”
 Full ratings after the jump, races that have been moved are bolded.
Leans Rep Likely Rep Safe Rep  Leans NPA
HD 24 (Open) HD 27 (Open) HD 1  (Ingram)  HD 34 (Smith)
HD 29 (Dorworth) HD 51 (Crisafulli) HD 2  (Broxson)
HD 35 (Schenk) HD 55 (Open) HD 3   (Ford)
HD 41 (Wood) HD 58 (Open) HD 4   (Gaetz)
HD 42 (Horner) HD 65 (Nehr) HD 5  (Coley)
HD 50 (Open) HD 74 (Holder) HD 6   (Patronis)
HD 53 (Tobia) HD 77 (Open) HD 10  (Porter)
HD 59 (Open) HD 93 (Moritas) HD 11 (Adkins)
HD 71 (Boyd) HD 12 (Ray)
HD 72 (Pilon) HD 15 (Davis)
HD 85 (Rooney) HD 16 (McBurney)
HD 17 (Renuart)
HD 18 (Open)
HD 19 (Van Zant)
HD 22 (Open)
HD 23 (Baxley)
HD 25 (Open)
HD 28 (Brodeur)
HD 31 (Nelson)
HD 32 (Metz)
HD 33 (O’Toole)
HD 36 (Open)
HD 37 (Corcoran)
HD 38 (Weatherford)
HD 39 (Open)
HD 40 (McKeel)
HD 44 (Precourt)
HD 52  (Workman)
HD 54  (Mayfield)
HD 56  (Albritton)
HD 57 (Open)
HD 60 (Young)
HD 64 (Grant)
HD 73 (Steube)
HD 75 (Roberson)
HD 76 (Open)
HD 78 (Open)
HD 79 (Open)
HD 80 (Hudson)
HD 82 (Open)
HD 83 (Harrell)
HD 103 (Open)
HD 105 (Trijillo)
HD 106 (Passidomo)
HD 110 (Oliva)
HD 111 (Open)
HD 116 (Open)
HD 118 (Artiles)
HD 119 (Nunez)
Toss Up
HD 7  (Open)
HD 21 (Open)
HD 30 (Plakon)
HD 47 (Open)
HD 63 (Harrison)HD 66 (Ahern)
HD 67 (Hooper)
HD 68  (Open)
HD 69  (Open)
HD 89 (Hager)
HD 112 (Open)HD 114 (Fresen)
HD 115 (Bileca)
HD 120 (Open)
Safe Dem Likely Dem Leans Dem
HD 8 (Williams) HD 43 (Open) HD 9 (Rehwinkel-Vasilinda)
HD 13 (Fullwood) HD 62 (Cruz) HD 49 (Open)
HD 14  (Jones) HD 86 (Pafford) HD 84 (Open)
HD 20 (Open) HD 90 (Berman)
HD 26 (Taylor) HD 104 (Open)
HD 45 (Open)
HD 46 (Open)
HD 48 (Open)
HD 61 (Reed)
HD 70 (Rouson)
HD 81 (Open)
HD 87 (Open)
HD 88 (Open)
HD 91 (Slosberg)
HD 92 (Clarke-Reed)
HD 94 (Thurston)
HD 95 (Rogers)
HD 96 (Waldman)
HD 97 (Open)
HD 98 (Open)
HD 99 (Schwartz)
HD 100 (Gibbons)
HD 101 (Open)
HD 102 (Open)
HD 107 (Watson)
HD 108 (Campbell)
HD 109 (Stafford)
HD 113 (Open)
HD 117 (Open)
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4 thoughts on “House Race Ratings: September 19th

  1. Pingback: Is Rep. Erik Fresen’s State House seat in play? | Saint Petersblog

  2. Pingback: Sunburn for 9/20 — A morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics | Saint Petersblog

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