House Race Ratings – October 10th

This week, we move HD-68 where an excellent Democratic candidate Dwight Dudley is running against former GOP Rep. Frank Farkas into the “Leans Democrat” column. Dudley’s well run and disciplined campaign has pulled ahead in the St Petersburg based district. However, Democrats are struggling to break through in the three neighboring, marginal districts. Additionally, we’ve moved HD-34 into a “toss-up” column although Independent former Republican Sen. Nancy Argenziano who is being supported by the local Democratic Party is still likely to win this seat. We are counting her in our partisan balance as a Democrat.

Full ratings after the jump.

Leans Rep Likely Rep Safe Rep  
HD 24 (Open) HD 27 (Open) HD 1  (Ingram)
HD 29 (Dorworth) HD 51 (Crisafulli) HD 2  (Broxson)
HD 35 (Schenk) HD 58 (Open) HD 3   (Ford)
HD 41 (Wood) HD 65 (Nehr) HD 4   (Gaetz)
HD 50 (Open) HD 77 (Open) HD 5  (Coley)
HD 53 (Tobia) HD 93 (Moritas) HD 6   (Patronis)
HD 55 (Open) HD 10  (Porter)
HD 59 (Open) HD 11 (Adkins)
HD 71 (Boyd) HD 12 (Ray)
HD 72 (Pilon) HD 15 (Davis)
HD 85 (Rooney) HD 16 (McBurney)
HD 17 (Renuart)
HD 18 (Open)
HD 19 (Van Zant)
HD 22 (Open)
HD 23 (Baxley)
HD 25 (Open)
HD 28 (Brodeur)
HD 31 (Nelson)
HD 32 (Metz)
HD 33 (O’Toole)
HD 36 (Open)
HD 37 (Corcoran)
HD 38 (Weatherford)
HD 39 (Open)
HD 40 (McKeel)
HD 44 (Precourt)
HD 52  (Workman)
HD 54  (Mayfield)
HD 56  (Albritton)
HD 57 (Open)
HD 60 (Young)
HD 64 (Grant)
  HD 73 (Steube)HD 74 (Holder)
HD 75 (Roberson)
HD 76 (Open)
HD 78 (Open)
HD 79 (Open)
HD 80 (Hudson)
HD 82 (Open)
HD 83 (Harrell)
HD 103 (Open)
HD 105 (Trijillo)
HD 106 (Passidomo)
HD 110 (Oliva)
HD 111 (Open)
HD 116 (Open)
HD 118 (Artiles)
HD 119 (Nunez)
Toss Up
HD 7  (Open)
HD 21 (Perry)
HD 30 (Plakon)

 

HD 34 (Smith)

HD 47 (Open)
HD 63 (Harrison)

 

HD 66 (Ahern)

HD 67 (Hooper)
HD 69  (Open)
HD 89 (Hager)
HD 112 (Open)

HD 114 (Fresen)

HD 115 (Bileca)
HD 120 (Open)
Safe Dem Likely Dem Leans Dem
HD 8 (Williams) HD 43 (Open) HD 9 (Rehwinkel-Vasilinda)
HD 13 (Fullwood) HD 62 (Cruz) HD 49 (Open)

 

HD 68  (Open)

HD 14  (Jones) HD 86 (Pafford) HD 84 (Open)
HD 20 (Open) HD 90 (Berman)
HD 26 (Taylor) HD 104 (Open)
HD 45 (Open)
HD 46 (Open)
HD 48 (Open)
HD 61 (Reed)
HD 70 (Rouson)
HD 81 (Open)
HD 87 (Open)
HD 88 (Open)
HD 91 (Slosberg)
HD 92 (Clarke-Reed)
HD 94 (Thurston)
HD 95 (Rogers)
HD 96 (Waldman)
HD 97 (Open)
HD 98 (Open)
HD 99 (Schwartz)
HD 100 (Gibbons)
HD 101 (Open)
HD 102 (Open)
HD 107 (Watson)
HD 108 (Campbell)
HD 109 (Stafford)
HD 113 (Open)
HD 117 (Open)

No Toss Ups -Leans R

HD 7  (Open)

HD 21 (Perry)

HD 30 (Plakon)

HD 47 (Open)

HD 66 (Ahern)

HD 67 (Hooper)

HD 69 (Open)

HD 89 (Hager)

HD 112 (Open)

HD 114 (Fresen)

HD 115 (Bileca)

No Toss Ups – Leans D

HD 34 (Smith)

HD 42 (Open)

HD 63 (Harrison)

HD 120 (Open)

If we assign the toss-ups as we have above the new chamber would be 77-43 GOP (counting Nancy Argenziano as a Democrat), a gain of four seats for the Democrats but nowhere near the potential gains for the party given the competitiveness of the new map. Still, with five weeks left until the election, the Democrats could close in several of the other toss-up seats that we’ve assigned to the GOP being in a position to flip. But lack of funds and an undisciplined campaign plan seems to be dogging the Democrats. The party lost a candidate in the very winnable HD-27 and has to this point failed to spend adequately in several other toss-up seats to compete with built in GOP advantages. Then there are the special interest groups like AIF, Home Builders and the Florida Chamber who are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on House races mostly to boost struggling incumbent Republicans. Sadly for the Democrats, the incremental strategy of picking up seats gradually and eventually winning back the House (by 2016 or 2018) seems unlikely to get the big boost once hoped this cycle. The Democrats will pick up a net of seats on November 6th. But the 10-12 seat gain that seemed possible when the House map was approved now seems likely to be 3-5 seats.

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