Senate Race Ratings – October 12th

No changes to the Senate ratings this week, despite the polling numbers from St Pete Polls which give Dorothy Hukill an improbable and completely ridiculous twenty point lead over Frank Bruno. According to the poll survey Hukill’s lead has grown from 1 point to 20 points in about a month’s time.  We have chosen to ignore this poll as an outlier although St Pete Polls should be commended for polling local and state races, and  it should be stated that  some of their other surveys make perfect sense to those of us following these races closely. Regarding Sachs v. Bogdanoff St Pete polls has nailed that one as a close race that will down to the wire and seems to be less dependent on national trends and top of the ticket races than most legislative races in Florida. Ellyn Bogdanoff doesn’t deserve any support from local Democrats due to her right-wing voting record, but she will almost certainly get 10-15% of Nelson voters (and perhaps Obama voters) to crossover and vote for her. That means Sachs has to hold the rest of the Democrats and hope that the national Romney surge doesn’t create a turnout model in coastal Palm Beach/Broward  similar to 2004 where Republicans far outnumbered the Democrats in BOTH absentee votes and election day turnout. The Democrats led among early voters that year in this area.

Full ratings after the jump

Safe D Likely D Leans D Toss Up Leans R Likely R Safe R
SD 12 (Open) SD 3 (Montford) SD 14 (Open) SD 8 (Open) SD 4 (Open) SD 1 (Gaetz)
SD 19 (Open) SD 9 (Gibson) SD 35 (Margolis) SD 34 (Bogdanoff/Sachs) SD 7 (Open) SD 2 (Evers)
SD 27 (Open) SD 25 (Open) SD 10 (Simmons) SD 5 (Dean)
SD 29 (Ring) SD 15 (Open) SD 6 (Thrasher)
SD 31 (Smith) SD 21 (Open) SD 11 (Hays)
SD 33 (Sobel) SD 24 (Open) SD 13 (Gardiner)
SD 36 (Braynon) SD 32 (Negron) SD 16 (Altman)
SD 39 (Open) SD 17 (Open)
SD 18 (Open)
SD 20 (Latvala)
SD 22 (Open)
SD 23 (Richter)
SD 26 (Open)
SD 28 (Open)
SD 30 (Benacquisto)
SD 37 (Flores)
SD 38 (Garcia)
SD 40 (Diaz De La Portilla)

NO TOSS-UPS

Both toss-ups (SD-8 and SD-34) are assigned to the GOP as current polling and intelligence indicates the Republicans are slightly favored to win both races.

That would put the chamber at 27 R 13 D

Our current House projection is 77 R 43 D

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8 thoughts on “Senate Race Ratings – October 12th

  1. On the SD8 race, we did give an explanation of how the results changed in that race, it was given in the notes of the report:

    “The results for the SD8 race between Hukill and Bruno have changed significantly since we polled this race last month. The reason for the change is the shift in party crossover support. In our September poll, both candidates saw their other-party support at about the same levels. In this new poll, Hukill’s support from Democrats is now triple the level of Republican support that Bruno has. During this poll, we also asked the respondents if they consider themselves to be a Republican, Democrat or Independent, and the self-identified party affiliation support in this race was at the same rate as the state supplied registered party support was.”

    In addition to that explanation, the October poll uses active voter demographics, which have Democrats at 39% and Republicans at 40% while the registered voter demographics that were used in the September poll show the breakdown as Democrats 38%, Republicans 36%. Hukill has an advantage in this more recent poll because the members of her party vote at a higher rate than the opposing party, and those active voter demographics are what we used in this October poll.

  2. I like Mr. Trotter’s explanation yesterday. Short of a scandal how could Bruno have suffered a 20 point swing? Heck, even Todd Akin didn’t fall that far in the polls. The active demographics change should swing the poll 4-6 pts not 20.

  3. Thanks for your explanation. I want to thank you for taking the initiative to poll these races and in general find the polling to be along the lines of what appears to be happening in these races. In particular, the polling in Pinellas House and Senate races is right along the lines of what is happening on ground, and shows that your methodology and analysis is right on the money. Similarly, the Soto-McBride, Sachs-Bogdanfoff and Margolis-Courtier race all follow similar patterns, and seem very accurate.

    But this Bruno-Hukill race is one very notable exception and the results don’t make sense. It may have just been a bad sample. Your shift in methodology could not account for the vast change in that race.

    Polling is not an exact science and you guys are doing a great service. I just have a problem with this one particular poll which is a complete outlier. It happens, no malice intended by my post. I encourage you to keep up the excellent work on all these polls and you are doing a great service to those of us interested in state races.

  4. That poll is insane. I just looked at it. If Bruno and Hukill were a 20 point gap why are both parties both spending so much $$$$$ in the race???? Did they not get the memo? Certainly that $$$ could be better spent elsewhere.

  5. Romney is likely up ten in the 8th district since he leads statewide by five to seven points. So it is possible Bruno is 20 down.

  6. I doubt he’s 20 down and I think Romney may be 5 points up there meaning the most Hukill could be leading by is 6-8 points. Again, I don’t think St Pete polls is bad in any number of other races. In fact, I think their polling generally indicates the trend line in all races but this one. Even some of the ones questioned by others, tend to be more accurate than many may want to believe. But this poll was bad, and an outlier and could hurt the credibility of their otherwise excellent work.

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