Congressional Race Ratings: October 14th – Growing Republican Advantages

With the movement in the polls recently all favoring the GOP at the top of the ticket, down-ballot races are being profoundly affected. The combination of growing Romney strength on the Treasure Coast as well as Allen West’s negative ads have moved this race into the “Leans Republican” column. The Republican turnout apparatus in the area is far more advanced and impressive than the Democratic turnout infrastructure and in a close race they must be favored. Now that West’s ad campaign has raised Murphy’s negatives, West will have an advantage, though not an overwhelming one heading into the final weeks of the campaign.

Similarly, in the Orlando based 10th district, despite Dan Webster’s negatives seems to be slipping away as a pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. Val Demmings has run an impressive campaign to date, but this district having been drawn largely to unite Republican leaning areas of Central Florida is not ready just yet to elect a Democrat it appears.

Several other races are worth monitoring and could see a shift in rating next week in favor of the GOP. These include HD-9 where Alan Grayson is struggling in an overwhelmingly Democratic district against conservative Republican Todd Long. Grayson’s profile is defined and he seems to have a ceiling of support he can reach. Still he remains favored.  The Boca Raton based HD-22 is another seat where strong Democratic performance numbers would favor the Dem candidate, Lois Frankel, but her momentum seems to have stagnated in recent weeks despite a great fundraising quarter. Adam Hasner the ideologically conservative Republican nominee is trying to redefine himself as a moderate with some success thus far.

HD-2 and HD-26 are headed potentially in the other direction with the Democrats, Al Lawson and Joe Garcia respectively carrying momentum into the last few weeks of the election. If Garcia polls strongly for another week, we will move this race into the “Leans Democratic” column.

Full ratings after the jump.

Safe Democratic
FL-5 (Brown)
FL- 14 (Castor )
FL- 20 (Hastings)
FL-21 (Deutch)
FL-23 (Wasserman-Schultz)
FL-24 (Wilson)
Likely Democratic

None

Leans Democratic

FL-9 (Open)

FL-22 (Open)

FL- Senate (Nelson)

Toss Up

FL-26 (Rivera)

Leans Republican

FL-2 (Southerland)

FL-18 (West)

Likely Republican

FL- 6 (Open)

FL-10 (Webster)

FL-13 (Young)

FL-16 (Buchanan)

Safe Republican

FL-1 (Miller)
FL-3 (Stearns*)
FL-4 (Crenshaw)
FL-7 (Mica)
FL- 8 (Posey)
FL-11 (Nugent)
FL-12 ( Bilirakis)
FL-15 (Ross)
FL-17 (Rooney)
FL-19 (Open)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
FL 27 (Ros-Lehtinen)
* Stearns lost the GOP primary to Ted Yoho

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2 thoughts on “Congressional Race Ratings: October 14th – Growing Republican Advantages

  1. It is becoming obvious that Murphy despite huge spending on his behalf is far from our strongest possible candidate.

  2. Pingback: Sunburn for 10/15 — A morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics | Saint Petersblog

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