House Race Ratings: October 17th

Four changes this week to our ratings. Thus far in this cycle we are seeing a greater return rate of absentee ballots among registered Democrats than in 2008 and this is bringing increased speculation that Democrats may over perform across the state. However, for now we are going to assume that because of all of the discussion about the voter purge, we are in fact seeing former early voters casting votes by mail this cycle instead.

Let’s  break  down the four changes.

HD 7

Moved from “toss up” to “leans Republican”

Recent polls and local contacts indicate Republican Halsey Beshears is pulling away from Democrat Robert Hill. Barack Obama got just 37% of the two party vote here in 2008. The areas that comprise this seat has never before elected a Republican in the post reconstruction era, but this seat is the final rural Democratic holdout in the state.

HD 9

Moved from “leans Democrat to “likely Democrat”

Michelle Rewinkel-Vasalinda now looks safer against Republican Bradley Maxwell. Maxwell is a good prospective Republican candidate for the future, if the party does have any future in Leon County.

HD 65

Moved from “likely Republican to “leans Republican”

Rep. Peter Nehr’s moderate image and demeanor should have protected him in this district. But Pinellas County is unpredictable and wild swings in the electorate occur from cycle to cycle. Carl Zimmerman’s candidacy for the third time in four elections was viewed as a bit of a joke, but he came off to knocking off Nehr the first two times and is running strongly again. Nehr remains favored to hold the seat for the GOP but his margin for error has disappeared.

HD 69

Moved from “toss up” top “leans Republican”

Kathleen Peters is proving to be a very difficult Republican to run against for Josh Shulman. Barack Obama got 52% of the two-party vote here in 2008, so Shulman despite lackluster polling and a campaign that has struggled is still very much alive.
Full ratings below.

Safe Dem

HD 8 (Williams)
HD 14 (Jones)
HD 20 (Open)
HD 26 (Taylor)
HD 45 (Open)
HD 46 (Open)
HD 48 (Open)
HD 61 (Reed)
HD 70 (Rouson)
HD 81 (Open)
HD 87 (Open)
HD 88 (Open)
HD 91 (Slosberg)
HD 92 (Clarke-Reed)
HD 94 (Thurston)
HD 95 (Rogers)
HD 96 (Waldman)
HD 97 (Open)
HD 98 (Open)
HD 99 (Schwartz)
HD 100 (Gibbons)
HD 101 (Open)
HD 102 (Open)
HD 107 (Watson)
HD 108 (Campbell)
HD 109 (Stafford)
HD 113 (Open)
HD 117 (Open)
Likely Dem

HD 9 (Rehwinkel-Vasilinda)
HD 43 (Open)
HD 62 (Cruz)
HD 86 (Pafford)
HD 90 (Berman)
HD 104 (Open)
Leans Dem

HD 49 (Open)
HD 68 (Open)
HD 84 (Open)

Toss Up

HD 21 (Perry)
HD 30 (Plakon)
HD 34 (Smith)
HD 47 (Open)
HD 63 (Harrison)
HD 66 (Ahern)
HD 67 (Hooper)
HD 89 (Hager)
HD 112 (Open)
HD 114 (Fresen)
HD 115 (Bileca)
HD 120 (Open)

Leans Rep

HD 7 (Open)
HD 24 (Open)
HD 29 (Dorworth)
HD 35 (Schenk)
HD 41 (Wood)
HD 50 (Open)
HD 53 (Tobia)
HD 55 (Open)
HD 59 (Open)
HD 65 (Nehr)
HD 69 (Open)
HD 71 (Boyd)
HD 72 (Pilon)
HD 85 (Rooney)

Likely Rep

HD 27 (Open)
HD 51 (Crisafulli)
HD 58 (Open)
HD 93 (Moritas)

Safe Rep

HD 1 (Ingram)
HD 2 (Broxson)
HD 3 (Ford)
HD 4 (Gaetz)
HD 5 (Coley)
HD 6 (Patronis)
HD 10 (Porter)
HD 11 (Adkins)
HD 12 (Ray)
HD 15 (Davis)
HD 16 (McBurney)
HD 17 (Renuart)
HD 18 (Open)
HD 19 (Van Zant)
HD 22 (Open)
HD 23 (Baxley)
HD 25 (Open)
HD 28 (Brodeur)
HD 31 (Nelson)
HD 32 (Metz)
HD 33 (O’Toole)
HD 36 (Open)
HD 37 (Corcoran)
HD 38 (Weatherford)
HD 39 (Open)
HD 40 (McKeel)
HD 44 (Precourt)
HD 52 (Workman)
HD 54 (Mayfield)
HD 56 (Albritton)
HD 57 (Open)
HD 60 (Young)
HD 64 (Grant)
HD 73 (Steube)
HD 74 (Holder)
HD 75 (Roberson)
HD 76 (Open)
HD 78 (Open)
HD 79 (Open)
HD 80 (Hudson)
HD 82 (Open)
HD 83 (Harrell)
HD 103 (Open)
HD 105 (Trijillo)
HD 106 (Passidomo)
HD 110 (Oliva)
HD 111 (Open)
HD 116 (Open)
HD 118 (Artiles)
HD 119 (Nunez)

NO TOSS UPS

Republican favored

HD 21 (Perry)
HD 30 (Plakon)
HD 47 (Open)
HD 63 (Harrison)
HD 66 (Ahern)
HD 67 (Hooper)
HD 89 (Hager)
HD 112 (Open)
HD 114 (Fresen)
HD 115 (Bileca)

Democrat favored

HD 120 (Open)

Note: I’ll be in the Tampa Bay area all of next week for my employer (I am the Director of Communications for the second division soccer league in the US/Canada and our final game that will determine the 2012 champion is being held in St Petersburg) so I should have some time to get a feel for what is happening on the ground in some of these marginal races and may have cause to move a race or two in that area next week based on my observations.

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5 thoughts on “House Race Ratings: October 17th

  1. It’s pretty harsh that in the 11 toss ups you assign 10 to the GOP and just 1 to the Dems. That has to be questioned. IT should be equitable. 6 to 5 or 7 to 4.

  2. The district is a toss-up based upon the fact that President Obama carried it in 2008 and the seat had a Republican incumbent.

    The lean is based upon how the individual candidates are doing. The Republican candidates are performing better than a Republican should be expected and the Democratic candiates are performing worse than should be expected in a district with those demographics.

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