House Race Ratings – October 24th: Changes All Over The Map

Multiple changes this week to the ratings.

HD 21 toss-up (Republican favored) to toss-up (Democrat favored)

Slight shift here as Andrew Morey is benefiting from a huge Democratic advantage in returned absentee ballots in this district against incumbent Rep. Keith Perry. Still the closest thing to a pure “toss-up” anywhere in the state.

HD 47 toss-up (Republican favored) to Leans Republican

Former GOP Rep. Bob Brooks is running an impressive campaign in this Democratic leaning seat. Brooks has been helped by the fact that Linda Stewart has been a poor fundraiser and despite a strong activist background, hasn’t excited as many people as we had thought. Still, a spike in turnout here means Stewart could win but she is definitely an underdog now.

HD 49 Leans Democrat to toss-up (Democrat favored)

Democrat Joe Saunders is slipping as Republican Marco Pena continues to impress. Pena is likely to run several points ahead of Mitt Romney here.

HD 50 Leans Republican to Likely Republican

In retrospect this race should have been moved sooner. The district itself merely leans Republican but Rep. Tom Goodson is well funded and challenger Sean Ashby is weak.

HD 58 Leans Republican to Likely Republican

Democratic nominee Jose Vazquez has proven to be a joke despite this seat merely leaning GOP.  Republican Dan Raulerson will walk into this seat.

HD 59 Leans Republican to toss-up (Republican favored)

Democrat Gail Gottlieb has run a smart campaign and raised a decent amount of money in this swing seat. Republican Ross Spano remains favored, but just barely.

HD 65 Leans Republican to toss-up (Republican favored)

Rep. Peter Nehr is  facing a tough challenge from Carl Zimmerman yet again. Zimmerman is running a stronger and more disciplined race this time than in his 2006 and 2008 close shave defeats to Nehr. However, 2012 is likely to be a better GOP year than either 2006 or 2008, so while Zimmerman is stronger and Nehr weaker than those years, the incumbent remains favored.

Full ratings below:

Safe Dem

HD 8 (Williams)

HD 13 (Fullwood)

HD 14 (Jones)

HD 20 (Open)

HD 26 (Taylor)

HD 45 (Open)

HD 46 (Open)

HD 48 (Open)

HD 61 (Reed)

HD 70 (Rouson)

HD 81 (Open)

HD 87 (Open)

HD 88 (Open)

HD 91 (Slosberg)

HD 92 (Clarke-Reed)

HD 94 (Thurston)

HD 95 (Rogers)

HD 96 (Waldman)

HD 97 (Open)

HD 98 (Open)

HD 99 (Schwartz)

HD 100 (Gibbons)

HD 101 (Open)

HD 102 (Open)

HD 107 (Watson)

HD 108 (Campbell)

HD 109 (Stafford)

HD 113 (Open)

HD 117 (Open)

Likely Dem

HD 9 (Rehwinkel-Vasilinda)

HD 43 (Open)

HD 62 (Cruz)

HD 86 (Pafford)

HD 90 (Berman)

HD 104 (Open)

Leans Dem

HD 68 (Open)

HD 84 (Open)

Toss Up

HD 21 (Perry)

HD 30 (Plakon)

HD 34 (Smith)

HD 42 (Open)

HD 49 (Open)

HD 59 (Open)

HD 63 (Harrison)

HD 65 (Nehr)

HD 66 (Ahern)

HD 67 (Hooper)

HD 89 (Hager)

HD 112 (Open)

HD 114 (Fresen)

HD 115 (Bileca)

HD 120 (Open)

NO TOSS UPS

Republican favored

HD 29 (Dorworth)

HD 30 (Plakon)

HD 42 (Open)

HD 59 (Open)

HD 63 (Harrison)

HD 65 (Nehr)

HD 66 (Ahern)

HD 67 (Hooper)

HD 89 (Hager)

HD 112 (Open)

HD 114 (Fresen)

HD 115 (Bileca)

Democrat favored

HD 21 (Perry)

HD 49 (Open)

HD 120 (Open)

Leans Rep

HD 7 (Open)

HD 24 (Open)

HD 35 (Schenk)

HD 41 (Wood)

HD 47 (Open)

HD 53 (Tobia)

HD 55 (Open)

HD 69 (Open)

HD 71 (Boyd)

HD 72 (Pilon)

HD 85 (Rooney)

Likely Rep

HD 27 (Open)

HD 50 (Goodson)

HD 93 (Moritas)

Safe Rep

HD 1 (Ingram)

HD 2 (Broxson)

HD 3 (Ford)

HD 4 (Gaetz)

HD 5 (Coley)

HD 6 (Patronis)

HD 10 (Porter)

HD 11 (Adkins)

HD 12 (Ray)

HD 15 (Davis)

HD 16 (McBurney)

HD 17 (Renuart)

HD 18 (Open)

HD 19 (Van Zant)

HD 22 (Open)

HD 23 (Baxley)

HD 25 (Open)

HD 28 (Brodeur)

HD 31 (Nelson)

HD 32 (Metz)

HD 33 (O’Toole)

HD 36 (Open)

HD 37 (Corcoran)

HD 38 (Weatherford)

HD 39 (Open)

HD 40 (McKeel)

HD 44 (Precourt)

HD 51 (Crisafulli)

HD 52 (Workman)

HD 54 (Mayfield)

HD 56 (Albritton)

HD 57 (Open)

HD 58 (Open)

HD 60 (Young)

HD 64 (Grant)

HD 73 (Steube)

HD 74 (Holder)

HD 75 (Roberson)

HD 76 (Open)

HD 77 (Open)

HD 78 (Open)

HD 79 (Open)

HD 80 (Hudson)

HD 82 (Open)

HD 83 (Harrell)

HD 103 (Open)

HD 105 (Trijillo)

HD 106 (Passidomo)

HD 110 (Oliva)

HD 111 (Open)

HD 116 (Open)

HD 118 (Artiles)

HD 119 (Nunez)

 

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13 thoughts on “House Race Ratings – October 24th: Changes All Over The Map

  1. I think you should look closer at the Rooney-Lutrin race. Obama will carry that district and Lutrin while not having lots of cash has run a smart and engaging grassroots campaign. The race is really a toss up.

  2. That race is an interesting one. A very winnable D seat, but an underfunded, yet promising candidate. HD-85, HD-89, and HD-93 are all similarly weak GOP districts. If you’ll note all three seats are classified differently based largely on candidate quality and fundraising. But this is the seat where the Dems have almost won before, in both 2006 and 2008. 2012 not as strong a Dem year in all likelihood. That’s why it is “Leans Republican.”

  3. Linda Stewart and Joe Saunders are both piss-poor candidates.

    Tom Gustafson and Eileen Game poor also. Sorry, TPH but pushing for Stewart, Saunders and Randolph during the primary has caused these problems.

    You guys are generally on point but Saunders in particular was an awful decision. He’s a HORRIBLE candidate who may survive based solely on the strong D tilt of the seat.

  4. Look at HD 71. Our candidate Adam Tebrugge is an experienced lawyer, and public defender. He’s well connected locally and the type of Democrat our state party should be recruiting but never does. It is a tough seat but he will get crossover votes for sure. Take a closer look at the race if you can.

  5. FYI, Jose Vazquez Dem nominee in HD 58 left this comment:

    Kartik, I not appreciate your comment about Jose Vazquez is a joke. Why you not said Jose Vazquez who are member of the democrat party step up in a race where the chairman of Hillsborough County no brind a democrat leader to represent 32,000 democrats voters of district 58. Why you not comment about 2 leaders of the hcdp discriminate against a Puertorrican and Hispanic candidate. for last tell everybody about I do campaign with no money in other words i not own a favor to nobody.My opponent recognize I’m not a joke and for that reason him expend over 70,000 dollards in his campaing. lest see in November who are joke. Thank you for your opinion but first get inform why Jose Vazquez are a Candidate for state Representative. Tallahassee its a joke and we pay to that clows .

    My response:

    Sir, I wish you the best of luck but I am analyzing the campaign and I believe the public spat with the HCDEC was costly and led to an exodus of your supporters. This having been said, I applaud you for recruiting yourself to run as a representative of those Democrats and condemn the HCDEC for not recruiting you or another candidate for the race to represent those Dem voters. But why exactly did you threaten to withdraw from the race because you weren’t getting party support? We have dozens of candidates across the state in the same boat as you, but you went public, made it an issue and embarrassed yourself in the process. You undermined your own candidacy. In the future, the best advice would be to rightly call out the party BUT NOT TO THREATEN TO WITHDRAW FROM A RACE AFTER QUALIFYING.

    These things come with time. Hopefully, the next time you run, if you choose to seek office again you can learn from this error and use it to motivate you and galvanize your supporters. Other candidates throughout the state are in the same boat as you. The rest have just kept their head down, worked and worked and worked and put themselves in a position to possibly win. You did the opposite sir, and while I wish you the best of luck, you’ve handed the GOP the seat with your actions.

  6. I follow your summary with great interest. Help me out here as I see NO listing of HDs 13, 42 and 77. Also you list HD29 under Tossup GOP favored, but your separate Tossup listing it’s not listed. Lastly under Tossup is HD 34, yet not shown in Tossup-Lean breakdown.

  7. Thanks…It’s fixed. 13 and 77 are safe for their respective parties and have been added. 42 is a toss-up where the Republican is favored, not sure where that one went as I cut and pasted from word. 34 is not listed because the contest is between a R and an NPA who is a former Republican from the same seat now backed by Democrats (and the editorial board of this site). It isn’t listed because it doesn’t favor a Republican or Democrat.

    The fact that the Republican is favored in HD 42 is a sad statement considering it appeared the Democrat Eileen Game may walk into that seat after Mike Horner’s scandal broke. But the new Republican Mike LaRosa is proving to be an adept candidate.

  8. After weeks of ratings that itself were all over the map today’s edition totally matches reality. I know it’s tough keeping an eye on all the races but this is a good effort and I think you’ve got them almost all nailed. Good job! This is becoming indispensable reading for many.

    Regarding Brooks he has lots of D support and will win against Stewart. He’s mild mannered and moderate.

  9. Pingback: Here’s where sh*t stands — the ‘what are the interesting State House races – Part 1′ edition | Saint Petersblog

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