House Race Ratings – November 3rd: Several Developments Across the State

Our plan today was to move the HD-30 race where Scott Plakon has run a strong campaign backed by big money recently to “Leans Republican” despite the Democratic performance edge in the district. However, yesterday’s controversial mail piece is more than likely to boomerang against Plakon rather than to finish off Karen Castor-Dentel, whose campaign appeared to be on the ropes recently. So the race has not been moved.

Another race that seems to be worth monitoring is the HD-65 race where Peter Nehr is struggling to hang on against perennial opponent Carl Zimmerman. Nehr has all the institutional and demographic advantages but our on the ground intelligence, coupled with a recent St Pete Polls automated survey indicates Zimmerman is holding his own among ballots already cast.

In HD-63 Democrats have cast over 4% more ballots than Republicans in early/absentee voting. That’s bad news for Rep. Shawn Harrison whose campaign against challenger Mark Danish took a negative and personal turn this week with multiple hit-piece mailers. What’s shocking is that the FDP hasn’t targeted this race but yet Danish is almost certain to finish with a good percentage of the vote and maybe even steal a victory.

Another seat worth taking another look at is HD-85 held by Pat Rooney, where the early/absentee voting is favoring the Democrats. Earlier this week, we moved HD-89 held currently by Bill Hager to “toss-up” Democrat favored for the same reason. We will consider moving this race tomorrow. Democrat David Lutrin has been underfunded but is likely to keep the race close based solely on long Obama coattails.

We’re hearing multiple reports of crossover voting in HD-49. Local voters casting ballots for Obama and Nelson then switching to Republican Marco Pena for the State House. Still this district performs overwhelmingly well for the Democrats and it will take a mammoth effort for Pena to overcome Joe Saunders.

Full ratings after the jump

Safe Dem
HD 8 (Williams)
HD 13 (Fullwood)
HD 14 (Jones)
HD 20 (Open)
HD 26 (Taylor)
HD 45 (Open)
HD 46 (Open)
HD 48 (Open)
HD 61 (Reed)
HD 70 (Rouson)
HD 81 (Open)
HD 87 (Open)
HD 88 (Open)
HD 91 (Slosberg)
HD 92 (Clarke-Reed)
HD 94 (Thurston)
HD 95 (Rogers)
HD 96 (Waldman)
HD 97 (Open)
HD 98 (Open)
HD 99 (Schwartz)
HD 100 (Gibbons)
HD 101 (Open)
HD 102 (Open)
HD 107 (Watson)
HD 108 (Campbell)
HD 109 (Stafford)
HD 113 (Open)
HD 117 (Open)
Likely Dem
HD 9 (Rehwinkel-Vasilinda)
HD 43 (Open)
HD 62 (Cruz)
HD 86 (Pafford)
HD 90 (Berman)
HD 104 (Open)

Leans Dem
HD 68 (Open)
HD 84 (Open)

Toss Up
HD 21 (Perry)
HD 30 (Plakon)
HD 34 (Smith)
HD 42 (Open)
HD 49 (Open)
HD 59 (Open)
HD 63 (Harrison)
HD 65 (Nehr)
HD 66 (Ahern)
HD 67 (Hooper)
HD 89 (Hager)
HD 112 (Open)
HD 114 (Fresen)
HD 115 (Bileca)
HD 120 (Open)


Republican favored

HD 30 (Plakon)

HD 42 (Open)

HD 49 (Open)

HD 63 (Harrison)

HD 65 (Nehr)

HD 66 (Ahern)

HD 67 (Hooper)

HD 112 (Open)

HD 114 (Fresen)

HD 115 (Bileca)

Democrat favored
HD 21 (Perry)

HD 89 (Hager)

HD 120 (Open)

Leans Rep
HD 7 (Open)
HD 24 (Open)
HD 29 (Dorworth)
HD 35 (Schenk)
HD 41 (Wood)
HD 47 (Open)
HD 53 (Tobia)
HD 55 (Open)
HD 59 (Open)
HD 69 (Open)
HD 71 (Boyd)
HD 72 (Pilon)
HD 85 (Rooney)
Likely Rep
HD 27 (Open)
HD 50 (Goodson)
HD 93 (Moritas)
Safe Rep
HD 1 (Ingram)
HD 2 (Broxson)
HD 3 (Ford)
HD 4 (Gaetz)
HD 5 (Coley)
HD 6 (Patronis)
HD 10 (Porter)
HD 11 (Adkins)
HD 12 (Ray)
HD 15 (Davis)
HD 16 (McBurney)
HD 17 (Renuart)
HD 18 (Open)
HD 19 (Van Zant)
HD 22 (Open)
HD 23 (Baxley)
HD 25 (Open)
HD 28 (Brodeur)
HD 31 (Nelson)
HD 32 (Metz)
HD 33 (O’Toole)
HD 36 (Open)
HD 37 (Corcoran)
HD 38 (Weatherford)
HD 39 (Open)
HD 40 (McKeel)
HD 44 (Precourt)
HD 51 (Crisafulli)
HD 52 (Workman)
HD 54 (Mayfield)
HD 56 (Albritton)
HD 57 (Open)
HD 58 (Open)
HD 60 (Young)
HD 64 (Grant)
HD 73 (Steube)
HD 74 (Holder)
HD 75 (Roberson)
HD 76 (Open)
HD 77 (Open)
HD 78 (Open)
HD 79 (Open)
HD 80 (Hudson)
HD 82 (Open)
HD 83 (Harrell)
HD 103 (Open)
HD 105 (Trijillo)
HD 106 (Passidomo)
HD 110 (Oliva)
HD 111 (Open)
HD 116 (Open)
HD 118 (Artiles)
HD 119 (Nunez)


2 thoughts on “House Race Ratings – November 3rd: Several Developments Across the State

  1. For HD-49, it should be noted that it has a significant Hispanic population, and is susceptible to ethnic voting by the Hispanic Obama-Nelson voters; since Pena (Rep.) is Hispanic and Saunders (Dem.) is white.

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