Dave Trotter’s Predictions for Federal Races.

When I started this website over two years ago, I mainly did it as an election prediction page. In all of the races for US House, Senate and Governor, Nate Silver beat me by one race. On the other hand, I beat Larry Sabato by one race. Unlike these two men who have vast resources, I just have my brain. And, while I don’t always toot my own horn, when it comes to political predictions, I am proud to toot away.

With polls closing in less than 48 hours, it is time that I put up my predictions for Congress, the US Senate as well as President. Tomorrow I will do the governor’s races and Florida races.

Before telling my predictions, let me just say that this will be one of the hardest election years to predict. With more bad polling firms than good polling firms, as well as legitimate polling firms looking more like Fox News than being “fair and balanced”, some of these races are extremely hard to pick as the data is all over the place, especially for the US House. I am extremely confident on my presidential pick, but not so much on my other ones. I just wanted to throw that out there.

So, let’s take a look at Congress. Unfortunately, the Republicans made enough gains in the state legislatures to gerrymander the heck out of a lot of seats. THIS IS WHY STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES ARE IMPORTANT. Yes, I did need to yell that. Anyway, when all is said and done, I predict that the Republicans will retain a 238-197 lead in the House, which is nearly identical to today’s total. Here are some of the races to watch on Election Night:

AZ 1
AZ 9
CA 7
CA 9
CA 10
CA 24
CA 36
CA 41
CA 52
CO 6
CO 7
CT 5
FL 2
FL 9
FL 10
FL 18
FL 22
FL 26
GA 12
IL 10
IL 11
IL 12
IL 13
IL 17
IN 2
IA 3
IA 4
MD 6
MA 6
MI 1
MN 6
MN 8
NV 4
NH 1
NH 2
NY 18
NY 24
NY 27
NC 8
OH 6
OH 16
PA 12
UT 4
WA 1

Here are my overall predictions for the House:

District 197 238
D R
AL 1   1
AL 2   1
AL 3   1
AL 4   1
AL 5   1
AL 6   1
AL 7 1  
AK   1
AZ 1 1  
AZ 2 1  
AZ 3 1  
AZ 4   1
AZ 5   1
AZ 6   1
AZ 7 1  
AZ 8   1
AZ 9 1  
AR 1   1
AR 2   1
AR 3   1
AR 4   1
CA 1   1
CA 2 1  
CA 3 1  
CA 4   1
CA 5 1  
CA 6 1  
CA 7   1
CA 8   1
CA 9 1  
CA 10   1
CA 11 1  
CA 12 1  
CA 13 1  
CA 14 1  
CA 15 1  
CA 16 1  
CA 17 1  
CA 18 1  
CA 19 1  
CA 20 1  
CA 21   1
CA 22   1
CA 23   1
CA 24 1  
CA 25   1
CA 26 1  
CA 27 1  
CA 28 1  
CA 29 1  
CA 30 1  
CA 31   1
CA 32 1  
CA 33 1  
CA 34 1  
CA 35 1
CA 36   1
CA 37 1  
CA 38 1  
CA 39   1
CA 40 1  
CA 41 1  
CA 42   1
CA 43 1  
CA 44 1  
CA 45   1
CA 46 1  
CA 47 1  
CA 48   1
CA 49   1
CA 50 1
CA 51 1
CA 52 1  
CA 53 1  
CO 1 1  
CO 2 1  
CO 3   1
CO 4   1
CO 5   1
CO 6   1
CO 7 1  
CT 1 1  
CT 2 1  
CT 3 1  
CT 4 1  
CT 5 1  
DE AL 1
FL 1   1
FL 2   1
FL 3   1
FL 4   1
FL 5 1  
FL 6   1
FL 7   1
FL 8   1
FL 9 1  
FL 10   1
FL 11   1
FL 12   1
FL 13   1
FL 14 1  
FL 15   1
FL 16   1
FL 17   1
FL 18 1  
FL 19   1
FL 20 1  
FL 21 1  
FL 22 1  
FL 23 1  
FL 24 1  
FL 25   1
FL 26 1
FL 27   1
GA 1   1
GA 2 1  
GA 3   1
GA 4 1  
GA 5 1  
GA 6   1
GA 7   1
GA 8   1
GA 9   1
GA 10   1
GA 11   1
GA 12 1  
GA 13 1  
GA 14   1
HI 1 1  
HI 2 1  
ID 1   1
ID 2   1
IL 1 1  
IL 2 1  
IL 3 1  
IL 4 1  
IL 5 1  
IL 6   1
IL 7 1  
IL 8 1  
IL 9 1  
IL 10   1
IL 11 1  
IL 12   1
IL 13 1  
IL 14   1
IL 15   1
IL 16   1
IL 17 1  
IL 18   1
IN 1 1  
IN 2   1
IN 3   1
IN 4   1
IN 5   1
IN 6   1
IN 7 1  
IN 8   1
IN 9   1
IA 1 1  
IA 2 1  
IA 3   1
IA 4   1
KS 1   1
KS 2   1
KS 3   1
KS 4   1
KY 1   1
KY 2   1
KY 3 1  
KY 4   1
KY 5   1
KY 6 1  
LA 1   1
LA 2 1  
LA 3   1
LA 4   1
LA 5   1
LA 6   1
ME 1 1  
ME 2 1  
MD 1   1
MD 2 1  
MD 3 1  
MD 4 1  
MD 5 1  
MD 6 1  
MD 7 1  
MD 8 1  
MA 1 1  
MA 2 1  
MA 3 1  
MA 4 1  
MA 5 1  
MA 6   1
MA 7 1  
MA 8 1  
MA 9 1  
MI 1 1
MI 2   1
MI 3   1
MI 4   1
MI 5 1  
MI 6   1
MI 7   1
MI 8   1
MI 9 1  
MI 10   1
MI 11   1
MI 12 1  
MI 13 1  
MI 14 1  
MN 1 1  
MN 2   1
MN 3   1
MN 4 1  
MN 5 1
MN 6   1
MN 7 1  
MN 8 1  
MS 1   1
MS 2 1  
MS 3   1
MS 4   1
MO 1 1  
MO 2   1
MO 3   1
MO 4   1
MO 5 1  
MO 6   1
MO 7   1
MO 8   1
MT AL   1
NE 1   1
NE 2   1
NE 3   1
NV 1 1  
NV 2   1
NV 3   1
NV 4   1
NH 1   1
NH 2 1  
NJ 1 1  
NJ 2   1
NJ 3   1
NJ 4   1
NJ 5   1
NJ 6 1  
NJ 7   1
NJ 8 1  
NJ 9 1  
NJ 10 1  
NJ 11   1
NJ 12 1  
NM 1 1  
NM 2   1
NM 3 1  
NY 1 1  
NY 2   1
NY 3 1  
NY 4 1  
NY 5 1  
NY 6 1  
NY 7 1  
NY 8 1  
NY 9 1  
NY 10 1  
NY 11   1
NY 12 1  
NY 13 1  
NY 14 1  
NY 15 1  
NY 16 1  
NY 17 1
NY 18   1
NY 19   1
NY 20 1  
NY 21 1  
NY 22   1
NY 23   1
NY 24 1  
NY 25 1  
NY 26 1  
NY 27   1
NC 1 1  
NC 2   1
NC 3   1
NC 4 1  
NC 5   1
NC 6   1
NC 7 1  
NC 8   1
NC 9   1
NC 10   1
NC 11   1
NC 12 1  
NC 13   1
ND AL   1
OH 1   1
OH 2   1
OH 3 1  
OH 4   1
OH 5   1
OH 6   1
OH 7   1
OH 8   1
OH 9 1  
OH 10   1
OH 11 1  
OH 12   1
OH 13 1  
OH 14   1
OH 15   1
OH 16 1  
OK 1   1
OK 2   1
OK 3   1
OK 4   1
OK 5   1
OR 1 1  
OR 2   1
OR 3 1  
OR 4 1  
OR 5 1
PA 1 1  
PA 2 1  
PA 3   1
PA 4   1
PA 5   1
PA 6   1
PA 7   1
PA 8   1
PA 9   1
PA 10   1
PA 11   1
PA 12 1  
PA 13 1  
PA 14 1  
PA 15   1
PA 16   1
PA 17 1  
PA 18   1
RI 1 1  
RI 2 1
SC 1   1
SC 2   1
SC 3   1
SC 4   1
SC 5   1
SC 6 1  
SC 7   1
SD AL   1
TN 1   1
TN 2   1
TN 3   1
TN 4   1
TN 5 1  
TN 6   1
TN 7   1
TN 8   1
TN 9 1  
TX 1   1
TX 2   1
TX 3   1
TX 4   1
TX 5   1
TX 6   1
TX 7   1
TX 8   1
TX 9 1  
TX 10   1
TX 11   1
TX 12   1
TX 13   1
TX 14   1
TX 15 1  
TX 16 1
TX 17   1
TX 18 1  
TX 19   1
TX 20 1  
TX 21   1
TX 22   1
TX 23   1
TX 24   1
TX 25   1
TX 26   1
TX 27   1
TX 28 1  
TX 29 1  
TX 30 1  
TX 31   1
TX 32   1
TX 33 1  
TX 34 1  
TX 35 1  
TX 36   1
UT 1   1
UT 2   1
UT 3   1
UT 4   1
VT AL 1
VA 1   1
VA 2   1
VA 3 1  
VA 4   1
VA 5   1
VA 6   1
VA 7   1
VA 8 1  
VA 9   1
VA 10   1
VA 11 1  
WA 1 1  
WA 2 1  
WA 3   1
WA 4   1
WA 5   1
WA 6 1  
WA 7 1  
WA 8   1
WA 9 1  
WA 10 1  
WV 1   1
WV 2   1
WV 3 1  
WI 1   1
WI 2 1  
WI 3 1  
WI 4 1  
WI 5   1
WI 6   1
WI 7   1
WI 8   1
WY   1

As for the US Senate, I feel that it will be a wash. At the end of the day, 54 will caucus with the Democrats and 46 with the Republicans, only a net gain of one for the Democrats. Therefore, the make up of the 113th Congress might be nearly identical as the make up of the 112th Congress. Here are the major Senate races to watch:

Missouri
Virginia
Wisconsin
Montana
Indiana
South Dakota
Arizona
Nevada

Here are my predictions:

AZ R Retain
CA D Retain
CT D Retain(ish)
DE D Retain
FL D Retain
HI D Retain
IN D Takeover
MA D Takeover
MD D Retain
ME I Takeover, Caucus with D
MI D Retain
MN D Retain
MO D Retain
MS R Retain
MT D Retain
NE R Takeover
NJ D Retain
NM D Retain
NV R Retain
NY D Retain
OH D Retain
PA D Retain
RI D Retain
ND R Takeover
TN R Retain
TX R Retain
UT R Retain
VA D Retain
VT I Retain, Caucus with D
WA D Retain
WI D Retain
WV D Retain
WY R Retain

Finally, for my presidential predictions. Well, just look at the map above. Note: all 50 states and the District of Columbia was correct.

And that is it. Tomorrow I will have my Florida races in the evening.

Advertisements

3 thoughts on “Dave Trotter’s Predictions for Federal Races.

  1. Yes, this if for three reasons.

    First, the polls have tightened up. As far as the legitimate polling firms, they have Obama up by 1%. Public Policy Polls are the least biased polls conducted in the state (based on their predictions and comparison to the results), and they show Obama slightly up.

    Second, early voting will make a difference. With record turnouts in some places, even with the restricted time to early vote, the numbers still look good.

    Third, all of the AM and the early part of the PM will have thunderstorms in the panhandle. They aren’t heavy storms, but they could possibly keep some people from voting, especially in rural counties.

    Oh, and a 4th, I don’t see Romney winning Hillsborough, especially with good early voting numbers for the Democrats. Hillsborough is Romney’s Ohio in Florida. If he doesn’t win Hillsborough, he doesn’t win the state.

  2. Pingback: Archive: 2012 Federal Races | How The World Votes

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s