Election Day Live Blog

Please follow this post throughout the day for election news in Florida and throughout the nation. Kartik and Dave will be updating this site regularly. Also, there might be a live UStream done by both Kartik and Dave when the polls close. That is yet to be determined.

7:34 PM (Dave Trotter) – CD 10 closer than expected. Demings 48.7%, Webster 51.3%.

7:20pm (Kartik Krishnaiyer) – Obama up by 65,000 votes in Palm Beach

7:19 PM (Dave Trotter) – Romney and Obama 50%-50% in Miami Dade County.

7:16 PM (Dave Trotter) – In Pasco County, Romney only up 52% to 47%.

7:13 PM (Dave Trotter) – Hillsborough County early and absentee in. Obama up 54% to 45%.

7:11 PM (Dave Trotter) – Obama leading in Pinellas County 53% to 46%. Good night so far.

7:04 PM (Dave Trotter) – Orange County, Florida – 250,905 votes in, Obama with 60.89%, Romney with 38.37%

6:38 PM (Dave Trotter) – Large Hispanic precincts in south Orange County currently have a three hour wait. Good news from Orange County.

5:33 PM (Dave Trotter) – Reports are that the “600 numbered precincts” in Orange County, which are highly African-American, have high turn out with lines all day long. Also it is being reported that right now the lines are the longest they have been all day.

Also, very long lines at the University of Central Florida.

5:26 PM (Dave Trotter) – Pasco County, a Republican leaning county, is 10% down on their 2008 total. Question is if they will make that up in 2 hours. I just don’t see it.

5:21 PM (Dave Trotter) – Reports from Orlando “Catalyst Church (428 orange county) has had a three hour wait all day. They don’t have the equipment to handle the crowd. And the a/c is broken now too.”

4:00 PM (Kartik Krishnaiyer) – Turnout in the Republican leaning coastal areas of Palm Beach and Broward County (north of Port Everglades) appears to be high. The question is whether it resembles 2004 when Republican Evangelical voters on coast turned out seemingly out of nowhere or if it is a 2008 like turnout when the Democrats pulled out a lot of casual independent voters. The numbers of registered independents in this part of southeast Florida has grown quickly in recent years.

3:35 PM (Dave Trotter) – Pasco County finally updated their numbers and no major changes. One interesting thing is that they are still a good 15% off the 2008 turnout. While the turnout numbers will increase, there might be a chance that Pasco doesn’t hit their 2008 totals. More good news for Democrats.

3:12 PM (Dave Trotter) – Pasco County hasn’t updated their turnout numbers for this hour. Wonder what the issue is regarding the lack of updating?

2:12 PM (Dave Trotter) – New Pasco County numbers in show a very slight dip in Republican numbers. Turnout is at 57.19%. 2008 turnout was 73.74%.

1:45 PM (Dave Trotter) – Polls lines are starting to get long again in Palm Beach County after earlier confusion.

1:38 PM (Dave Trotter) – First polls closing in Guam and President Obama winning by 72%. While it doesn’t really mean anything, it is up from the 62% that he scored there in 2008.

1:20 PM (Kartik Krishnaiyer) – Having landed back in Fort Lauderdale a little over an hour ago I am heading to  several precincts now. These precincts are heavily Democratic and we will be able to gauge the 2012 vs 2008 turnout shortly at multiple Broward Precincts.

1:11 PM (Dave Trotter) – Republican Orange County Tax Collector candidate Jim Huckeba is trying to confuse the vote with misleading signs. Here is a picture of one.

1:10 PM (Kartik Krishnaiyer) – Reports that the Heron Bay precinct in Coral Springs has run out of ballots. Also on a humorous note, FOX News continues to discuss a “New Black Panther campaign of intimation” at polling places in Philadelphia.

1:03 PM (Dave Trotter) – Huge change in the turnout in Pasco County. In the last hour, only 2,300 Republicans turned out to vote, while 12,000 Democrats turned out to vote and only 1,300 other/independents. Republicans are still performing better in Pasco, but the Democrats went from performing 5% less than their registration to now being .27% up on their registration. Great news.

1:00 PM (Kartik Krishnaiyer) – I am hearing that Democratic turnout in north Dade and southern Broward counties is extraordinary even after the long lines for Early Voting this past Saturday. People on the ground claiming it better than 2008. This is a good sign for both Obama and Nelson.

12:50 PM (Dave Trotter) – Palm Beach looking more like the Amateur Night at the Imrpov now. Reports of broken voting machines, as well as “hundreds of unread ballots on the floor” according to a tweet from Palm Beach Post’s Stacey Singer.

12:18 PM (Dave Trotter) – Rep. Mike Fasano tweets that in Pasco County, 46,827 have voted today. 21,344 are Republicans, 14,555 are Democrats and others 10,928.

10:05 AM (Dave Trotter) – Thunderstorms heading toward Ft. Myers. Should arrive in the next hour to hour and a half. More good news for Democrats.

10:00 AM (Dave Trotter) – Palm Beach Post reporter Bill Dipaolo reports that the correct ballots have arrived in Palm Beach Gardens after two hours.

9:48 AM (Dave Trotter) – Palm Beach Post is reporting more problems, this time with ballots in the north part of the county missing the first page or having the wrong first page. Not a good start in Palm Beach County.

9:41 AM (Dave Trotter) – Palm Beach Post reporting a potentially large problem. They are saying that people are being told that they aren’t registered to vote. This might be our election story of the day.

9:07 AM (Dave Trotter) – Reports coming out of Delray Beach that there is a precinct that doesn’t have any ballots and that they are on their way. The Palm Beach Post is also reporting on this problem.

9:02 AM (Dave Trotter)– Here is a photo from a precinct in Orange County. This precinct is 40% Democratic, 28% Republican and 32% Other, most of them being Hispanic. Good news.

8:28 AM (Dave Trotter) – Just an early note so far…a number of Democrats are reporting large lines in their Democratic precincts on Twitter and Facebook, while Republicans have been suspiciously quiet.

8:20 AM (Dave Trotter) – Reports from Palm Beach County is that voting is progressing well in the Wellington area. Turnout is great and lines are moving steadily.

8:15 AM (Dave Trotter) – We are getting some reports that there might be some electioneering disputes in the African-American precincts in Orange County. We will be checking into this.

8:00 AM (Kartik Krishnaiyer) – This report from
HD 114 candidate Ross Hancock : UM students in line before sunrise this morning. Dems recently registered thousands of new voters on the campus in HD 114, altering the Republican party advantage.

Also we have reports of long lines in heavily Democratic Broward County.

7:20 AM (Kartik Krishnaiyer) – I received a text message about ballot issues in southeast Florida. Nothing related to the Presidential or US Senate race but some precincts have the wrong local races/state races. We will keep you posted on this, and this is a normal occurrence and as of yet nothing to be alarmed about.

7:15 AM (Kartik Krishnaiyer) – Sitting at the gate waiting for my flight to Fort Lauderdale and I overhear a conversation presumably between two Republicans or industry insiders here in DC about Nate Silver and how he is ruining the industry for pollsters. Silver actually takes polls and interprets them with a set of metrics that make sense if you bother to actually pay attention. The charges that he is an ideologue trying to throw the election to Obama smack in my opinion of professional jealousy.

7:13 AM (Dave Trotter) – St. Rep. Mike Fasano tweets that there is heavy rain in west Pasco County.

7:05 AM (Dave Trotter) – St. Rep. Mark Pafford says on Facebook that lines are already long down in Palm Beach.

7:00 AM (Dave Trotter) – Polls now open in Florida’s Eastern Time Zone.

5:54 AM (Dave Trotter) – Former State House candidate Lee Douglas states on his Facebook status “Very long line for opening” for Precincts 106 and 107 in Orange County, which is Winter Garden. Good sign for Democrats.

4:53 AM (Dave Trotter) – Hart’s Location, NH gives Obama an early lead in the election with a 23 to 9 vote victory over Romney. In 2008, Obama won 17 to 10. Dixville Notch, NH tie between Obama and Romney at 5 votes each. This is a good sign that Obama could do well in New Hampshire, since he outperformed his 2008 total. Still, extremely early.

4:45 AM (Kartik Krishnaiyer)– I am leaving my hotel in Loudon County, Virginia one of the America’s bellwether areas to fly back to Fort Lauderdale. I was up here on business, but head back to Florida to work the polls this afternoon and evening. Operating on about two and a half hours sleep here are the major topics I will be following today when I get back home to Florida. On the plane I’ll be reading the new release, Election Night: A Television History on my Kindle when not watching MSNBC (I am flying JetBlue).

  • Will the Republican spending in Legislative races carry the day for the GOP? This go-round the Democrats have been more aggressive and effective with messaging but have been heavily outspent and inconsistent in targeting. The RPOF and its allies have had so much money they have spent in some races the FDP didn’t even think of targeting or needing to protect.
  • Counties I am watching closely tonight regarding the Presidential Race: Hillsborough- for Obama performance, Volusia – not mentioned much by pundits but Obama needs to carry this county as it has historically tended to be an indicator of overall D performance statewide, Broward – for turnout, Palm Beach – to see if the much discussed Jewish-American exodus from Obama is real (I suspect it is not and Obama will do fine here), Orange – to gauge Puerto Rican turnout and enthusiasm, Pinellas – early returns tend to set the tone for the night, Miami-Dade – to see how deep the hostility I suspect from the middle aged and senior Cuban-American community especially in West Dade and Doral is towards the President; this perceived hostility is part of the reason I picked scandal plagued Rep. David Rivera to hang on to his seat in what would be considered a major upset at this point.
  • The contentious Maria Sachs v. Ellyn Bogdanoff State Senate race, five Pinellas County House seats and four Seminole/Orange County seats are the most interesting legislative races to track tonight.
  • Will Obama match his 2008 performance in Republican core counties such as Seminole, Sarasota, Lee and Escambia? In each of these four counties Obama far over-performed compared to former Dem nominees. In the case of Sarasota, the Northport area (bordering Charlotte County) has exploded in population since the mid 2000s and this has been mainly Republican growth.
  • Will Bill Nelson run strongly in north Florida once again? It is difficult to ascertain whether he is actually popular in the strong Republican area or if he has simply been faced with incredibly week Republican opposition in both 2000 and 2006.
  • Was Merit Retention ever seriously contested by the RPOF? I didn’t see much in the way of this much ballyhooed campaign and I expect all three judges to be retained easily after an intense pro-justices campaign dominated the airwaves and mailboxes.
  • Can Al Lawson and Robert Hill overcome the drag of the top of the ticket in the Panhandle to win?
  • How will Florida’s new election laws impact such things as races in college areas (Morey v. Perry, Saunders v. Pena in particular) and turnout in traditionally African-American areas.

These are just some of the story-lines I am watching today and tonight. Stay tuned to TPH all day for updates.


One thought on “Election Day Live Blog

  1. Guys

    CNN reporting heavy turnout and long lines in Cuban Republican areas of Miami. I voted for Goode but have decided I’d prefer Obama to Romney. Romney is the old Hoover Republican Wall Street type.

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