Some Quick Presidential County Level Thoughts

A few quick notes before we unveil a more detailed analysis in the coming days.

  • Republicans carried Volusia County for the first time since 1988, when they carried 66 of Florida’s 67 counties in George H.W. Bush’s 61-39 Florida win over Michael Dukakis. Volusia has typically been the best D medium sized county in the state outside of Leon/Alachua.
  • Obama’s performance went down in several Republican oriented medium sized counties compared to 2008 and even in some cases when compared to Al Gore in 2000. Pasco, Sarasota, Lee and Marion among other counties fit this description.
  • Obama once again failed to hit Gubernatorial type margins in Alachua and Leon counties. For whatever reason, Democratic Gubernatorial candidates perform better in both counties than Obama has and in direct contrast to the rest of the state.
  • The urban/suburban strategy of David Axelrod and David Ploufe carried Florida and in fact the nation for the President. The Democrats maximized turnout in Orange, Hillsborough, Broward and Miami-Dade counties among the different demographic groups that favor the President’s policies.
  • Duval County saw a strong performance as well, with the President once again over shooting expectations in the Jacksonville area.
  • Palm Beach County is experiencing some serious Democratic backsliding that we will analyze in greater detail in the upcoming days. Palm Beach County was for years Broward’s cousin producing good D margins only second to its neighbor to the south statewide. Now the county is beginning to trend towards the GOP ever so slightly. We will explore why in future days.
  • By contrast, Polk County performed remarkably well for the President a trend worth noting and keeping an eye on.
  • Obama’s relatively strong performance in the suburbs north of Tampa (Lutz, Carollwood, Town and Country) will be detailed further in the coming weeks on this site. This was a key to his carrying the state.
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