Predicting the State of Florida

A few days ago, I explained why I picked the states that I did in the presidential election. Now, it is time for me to explain my Florida picks. Let’s first start with the US House (since the Senate was never really close):

Congressional District 2: While I felt that the demographics were a little better for us, since all of Tallahassee was included in the district, I never saw any real momentum on the part of the Al Lawson campaign. Yes, he did a good job in the primary, but showed a lackluster performance in the general. I personally felt that the FDP and DCCC taking sides early in this race did not help. Even so, there was just no traction after the primary. Lawson did everything he could to win, but I think it must be realized now that North Florida is solidly Republican.

Congressional District 18: As I explained in my last prediction post, I looked at the fact that Allen West was elected in a “hyper-Republican” year, mostly because Democrats didn’t turn out to vote. Looking at people that represented this district in the past, none of them were extremely right wing. And while the district is a little different, I felt that those crazies that were brought in during the 2010 cycle would have a very hard time retaining their seats in 2012. Also, polling information showed that Murphy had a late charge. Just like Obama statewide, momentum can play a very large factor.

Congressional District 26: The reason that I picked Joe Garcia for this race was very simple…Garcia had a constant lead in the polls. When Garcia ran against Diaz-Balart in 2008 and David Rivera in 2010, he rarely had a lead, or a substantial lead. This time around, the poll numbers were looking good for Garcia. Compared to old election results, Garcia had to nearly have a point 10 lead in the polls. With the exception of a few questionable polls, Garcia was able to hold that margin.

In the Florida Legislature, I had mixed results. I got the Senate correct, but there was really only one close race in the Senate. In the State House, I got 6 incorrect, which I am not too proud of. Let’s go over these numbers.

State Senate 34: If there was ever a “flip a coin” race, this could have been it. Still, the numbers favored the Democrats just enough that a Sachs’ win here would be the logical choice. Just voting history and registration numbers helped me with my decision.

State House 21: When I look back at my numbers, I realized my big mistake. I looked at the early vote totals and saw where they were from and I felt confident. The problem was I totally skipped HOW MANY people actually voted in early voting. Most of the early voting came from Alachua and the percentages were pretty damn good for Morey. The problem was that I should have realized is that this is where he would get the bulk of his votes and that he pretty much topped out in early voting. Knowing there is going to be roughly 75,000 votes cast, with Morey needing about 38,000 to win, the 20,000 number was way too low for Morey. There were still too many votes available on Election Day, which is why Perry won.

State House 47: In my previous post about taking my emotions out of making predictions, in this case I think I took out too many emotions. I wanted Linda Stewart to win, but I think I wanted her to win so much that when I looked at the numbers, I figured out ways that she might not win. Therefore, I made a mistake on this one. Honestly, I didn’t think a district that was so close for Obama in 2008 would be won by a Democrat in 2012. I was wrong, thank God.

State House 49:  As much as I want to say that my emotions came into this one like they did in the HD 47 race, they really didn’t. As with the old HD 49, Puerto Ricans usually voted along ethnic lines instead of for their party. This is why John Quinones rarely loses. Therefore, I thought that a split in the Hispanic vote in this district would hurt Joe Saunders and help Marco Pena. In addition, because of Pena’s association with UCF, I was wondering if this might be a Republican upset. In the end it wasn’t. Hispanics voted with their party and not their heritage and UCF remained highly Democratic. The victory of Saunders in capturing the Puerto Rican vote should be very good news for Democrats in Central Florida.

House District 65: Didn’t see it coming. I just got this flat wrong with no explanation whatsoever.

House District 112Again, I didn’t see a Diaz de la Portilla losing a race down in the part of the state. Totally took me off guard.

House District 114: Unlike HD 47 and 49 where I took too much of my emotion out of it, in this race I put too much into it. I thought that the numbers might help, especially the early voting numbers in Miami-Dade. Like with Mark Danish in HD 63, I though that early voting would put Ross Hancock over the top. It didn’t

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