Comparing US Senate to Presidential Results

Bill Nelson earned a resounding re-election victory on November 6th running ahead of President Barack Obama (who also won the state) in all 67 counties. However, unlike 2006 when Nelson crushed the clownish Katherine Harris and won all but nine counties, this go round his Republican challenger Rep. Connie Mack actually won the majority of Florida counties. So while Barack Obama’s perceived policy positions and quite possibly his race had a negative impact on his performance in north Florida and other former “Dixiecrat” counties, Nelson isn’t a huge hit there either. Senator Nelson ran between 10-20 points ahead of the President in most rural counties, but still lost an overwhelming majority of the white vote and in the rural 2nd Congressional district counties. These numbers should close the book on any hope for a Dixiecrat revival or the type of  north Florida strategy openly advocated by prominent party consultants over the past decade.

The swing towards Nelson was most significant in terms of raw vote and shifting a county from a loss to win in and around the I-4 corridor region (essentially from Ocala south to Sarasota) where Pasco, Hernando, Sarasota, Manatee Polk, Seminole, Brevard, Volusia, Marion and Flagler all supported Senator Nelson while supporting Governor Romney for President. Outside this area the only counties to split their decisions were Okeechobee, Liberty, and Madison counties, all rural areas with a Democratic heritage. Liberty saw a massive  percentage swing from Obama to Nelson (it is the smallest county in Florida by population) but in all three counties, a shift of only a few hundred votes changed the result.  Madison County almost voted for Obama, who would have been the first Democratic Presidential nominee to carry the county since 1996.

Full results below. Tomorrow we will look at Congressional races and Obama performance in each seat.

COUNTY Nelson Obama Swing
Alachua 62 58 4
Baker 35 20 15
Bay 36 28 8
Bradford 39 29 10
Brevard 51 43 8
Broward 70 68 2
Calhoun 45 27 18
Charlotte 45 43 2
Citrus 48 39 9
Clay 33 27 6
Collier 38 35 3
Columbia 40 31 9
Desoto 48 43 5
Dixie 40 26 14
Duval 53 48 5
Escambia 45 39 6
Flagler 52 46 6
Franklin 49 34 15
Gadsden 74 70 4
Gilchrist 36 24 12
Glades 47 40 7
Gulf 44 28 16
Hamilton 48 41 7
Hardee 44 34 10
Hendry 50 47 3
Hernando 53 45 8
Highlands 46 38 8
Hillsborough 59 53 6
Holmes 27 15 12
Indian River 43 39 4
Jackson 46 35 11
Jefferson 60 51 9
Lafayette 33 20 13
Lake 47 41 6
Lee 45 42 3
Leon 66 61 5
Levy 43 33 10
Liberty 49 29 20
Madison 56 48 8
Manatee 49 43 6
Marion 49 42 7
Martin 44 38 6
Miami-Dade 63 62 1
Monroe 52 50 2
Nassau 34 25 9
Okaloosa 29 25 4
Okeechobee 50 40 10
Orange 64 59 5
Osceola 66 62 4
Palm Beach 64 58 6
Pasco 54 46 8
Pinellas 59 52 7
Polk 52 46 6
Putnam 47 37 10
Santa Rosa 29 23 6
Sarasota 51 46 5
Seminole 53 46 7
St. Johns 36 31 5
St. Lucie 59 55 4
Sumter 39 33 6
Suwannee 36 27 9
Taylor 43 30 13
Union 39 25 14
Volusia 55 49 6
Wakulla 46 35 11
Walton 30 24 6
Washington 38 26 12
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One thought on “Comparing US Senate to Presidential Results

  1. This should end all discussion of pushing to regain southern rural voters. Even the Democrat with the most southern good ole boy image got beat by a playboy who owned Hooters franchises. Says it all. The Tallahassee insider crowd will have to get more comfortable with the rest of the state now.

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