Odds for upcoming Florida State House races.

house1With the election only a few months away, and the primary a little more than a month away, it is time to take a look at the 120 Florida House seats.

Last week I created a method to determine the likelihood that Democrats would retain certain seats. When I created this method, I considered three important factors.

First, I looked at the voter registration gap of a district. Naturally the more a district leans toward one of the two major parties, the more of a likelihood that party would win.

Second, campaign contributions were looked at and factored into the equation. Examining some close historic races in Florida House elections, favorable financial conditions could account for a 2.5% to 10% bump in Election Day results. Therefore, I took the current campaign contribution numbers, examined the difference between the candidates of each party with the highest contribution totals, and then determined a number based on that difference.

Finally, I took an average of the most recent polling numbers for statewide offices. This takes the average of the last three polls for governor and attorney general (with all match ups possible). This average will be used as a thermometer to determine the current temperature of the electorate. Since Florida is becoming a straight-ticket state and House races can mirror top-ticket races, these numbers should be a good indicator of current electoral feelings. Also, once the primary is over, these polling averages should be more accurate.

One factor that has not been included is incumbency. The reason for this is that purely being an incumbent does not show whether you are a strong or weak incumbent. If an incumbent is strong, his or her campaign contributions should indicate whether that is the case. Also, candidates running against strong incumbents will probably have much lower campaign contributions, thus showing a major gap. Therefore, campaign contributions are being used to measure incumbency.

After running these numbers, here are the following odds for Democrats to win each of the 120 seats in the Florida House of Representatives, listing the current incumbent. These numbers are on a scale of 0-100, with zero indicating no chance for a Democrat to be elected and 100 being a certainty that a Democrat will be elected. Numbers under 50 shows a trend toward the Republicans while a number higher than 50 shows a trend toward the Democrats.

1 Ingram 10.51
2 Hill 13.77
3 Broxson 0
4 Gaetz 0
5 Coley (Open) 20.93
6 Patronis (Open) 0.87
7 Beshears 0
8 Williams 100
9 Vasilinda 100
10 Whiddon 0
11 Adkins 0
12 Ray 5.39
13 Fullwood 100
14 Jones, M. 100
15 Davis (Open) 0
16 McBurney 0
17 Renaurt 0
18 Cummings 0
19 Van Zant 0
20 Watson Jr. 100
21 Perry 50.81
22 Stone 0
23 Baxley 0
24 Hutson 0
25 Hood Jr. (Open) 0
26 Taylor 100
27 Santiago 5.29
28 Brodeur 0
29 Clelland 39.72
30 Castor Dentel 55.45
31 Nelson (Open) 0
32 Metz 0
33 O’Toole 0
34 Smith, J. 0
35 Schenck (Open) 18.71
36 Murphy 63.7
37 Corcoran 0
38 Wetherford (Open) 23.73
39 Combee 17.75
40 McKell (Open) 22.77
41 Wood 30.25
42 La Rosa 34.66
43 Rangel 100
44 Eisnaugle 0
45 Bracy 100
46 Antone 100
47 Stewart 40.83
48 Torres 100
49 Saunders 81.46
50 Goodson 0
51 Crisafulli 12.11
52 Workman 0
53 Tobia 24.19
54 Mayfield 2.29
55 Pigman 0
56 Albritton 0
57 Raburn 0
58 Figueroa 0
59 Spano 25.76
60 Young 0
61 Reed (Open) 100
62 Cruz 100
63 Danish 49.62
64 Grant 0
65 Zimmerman 21.39
66 Ahern 12.97
67 Hooper (Open) 26.75
68 Dudley 53.58
69 Peters 27.22
70 Rouson 100
71 Boyd 8.08
72 Pilon 15.14
73 Steube 0
74 Holder (Open) 0
75 Roberson 0
76 Rodrigues, R. 0
77 Eagle 0
78 Fitzenhagen 0
79 Calwell 0
80 Hudson 0
81 Rader 100
82 Magar 0
83 Harrell 0
84 Lee 75.89
85 Rooney 0
86 Pafford 87.14
87 Kerner 100
88 Powell 100
89 Hager 34.68
90 Berman 100
91 Slosberg 100
92 Clarke-Reed 100
93 Moraitis 21.34
94 Thurston (Open) 100
95 Rogers 100
96 Waldman (Open) 100
97 Moskowitz 100
98 Edwards 100
99 Jenne 100
100 Gibbons (Open) 100
101 Jones, S. 100
102 Pritchett 100
103 Diaz Jr., M. 23.72
104 Stark 100
105 Trujillo 21.16
106 Passidomo 0
107 Watson, B. 100
108 Campbell 100
109 Stafford 100
110 Oliva 0
111 Gonzalez (Open) 6.94
112 Rodriguez, J. 40.45
113 Richardson 94
114 Fresen 31.26
115 Bileca 18.17
116 Diaz, J. 2.91
117 McGhee 100
118 Artiles 14.77
119 Nunez 10.86
120 Raschein 0

These are the first numbers that have been released and are certain to change. These numbers will be updated after each financial report is published on the Division of Election’s website. Also, numbers could change drastically after the primary, as the likelihood of a high-financed candidate being knocked out of a primary is always present. Tuesday, I will go into these numbers further to explain the key seats in the upcoming election.

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