Odds for upcoming Florida State House races 7/16/2014

Here are The Political Hurricane’s current odds for Democratic wins for all of the Florida State House seats. These current numbers include the recent campaign finance reports, as well as the recent Survey USA poll, where Rick Scott has a 2% lead over Charlie Crist.

 

Williams 100
Vasilinda 100
Fullwood 100
Jones, M. 100
Watson Jr. 100
Taylor 100
Rangel 100
Bracy 100
Antone 100
Torres 100
Reed (Open) 100
Cruz 100
Rouson 100
Rader 100
Kerner 100
Powell 100
Berman 100
Slosberg 100
Clarke-Reed 100
Thurston (Open) 100
Rogers 100
Waldman (Open) 100
Moskowitz 100
Edwards 100
Jenne 100
Gibbons (Open) 100
Jones, S. 100
Pritchett 100
Stark 100
Watson, B. 100
Campbell 100
Stafford 100
Richardson 100
McGhee 100
Pafford 86.37
Saunders 81.24
Lee 74.95
Murphy 64.6
Dudley 53.36
Castor Dentel 50.91
Perry 49.93
Danish 49.3
Rodriguez, J. 40.77
Stewart 40.6
Clelland 36.56
La Rosa 35.52
Hager 33.55
Fresen 31.01
Wood 30.17
Santiago 28.41
Peters 27.51
Hooper (Open) 27.16
Spano 26.19
Wetherford (Open) 24.36
Tobia 24.29
Diaz Jr., M. 23.52
McKell (Open) 22.52
Zimmerman 21.58
Trujillo 21.32
Moraitis 21.08
Coley (Open) 20.68
Schenck (Open) 18.6
Bileca 18.33
Combee 17.5
Artiles 14.88
Pilon 14.87
Hill 13.54
Ahern 13.18
Crisafulli 11.86
Nunez 10.86
Ingram 10.26
Boyd 7.83
Gonzalez (Open) 7.45
Ray 5.14
Diaz, J. 3.02
Mayfield 2.08
Patronis (Open) 0.63
Broxson 0
Gaetz 0
Beshears 0
Whiddon 0
Adkins 0
Davis (Open) 0
McBurney 0
Renaurt 0
Cummings 0
Van Zant 0
Stone 0
Baxley 0
Hutson 0
Hood Jr. (Open) 0
Brodeur 0
Nelson (Open) 0
Metz 0
O’Toole 0
Smith, J. 0
Corcoran 0
Eisnaugle 0
Goodson 0
Workman 0
Pigman 0
Albritton 0
Raburn 0
Figueroa 0
Young 0
Grant 0
Steube 0
Holder (Open) 0
Roberson 0
Rodrigues, R. 0
Eagle 0
Fitzenhagen 0
Calwell 0
Hudson 0
Magar 0
Harrell 0
Rooney 0
Passidomo 0
Oliva 0
Raschein 0

While most of the numbers did not change from race to race, there are a few changes that need to be pointed out.

– Keith Perry is now the odds-on favorite to win HD 21. While the margin is still small, he has still taken a slight lead.

– Because of fundraising and polling data, Karen Castor Dentel’s odds of winning has been reduced to 50.91% likelihood, nearly 5% lower than last time.

– Mark Danish, Jose Rodriguez, Linda Stewart and Mike Clelland continue to see their odds reduced, though only slightly.

So, with these new numbers, what advice would I give House Democrats?

– Democrats might want to consider possibly investing in the race against Mike La Rosa. Even if the Republicans have a 60%-40% gap in spending, the seat could become competitive. If Democrats can equal La Rosa’s spending, there is a possibility that the Democrats could even have the edge in winning this district. According to my predictions, if the Democrats matched La Rosa’s spending numbers, Democrats have a 53.15% chance of winning the district.

– It is time for the Democrats to dump the Mike Clelland campaign. With the recent numbers, Clelland would have to outspend Scott Plakon by over 60% (81% of total spending in campaign by Clelland).  It has now come to the point that this is just throwing bad money on top of bad money.

– A small investment into the Mark Danish campaign could help. Currently, Danish is being outspend by Shawn Harrison by 19.6%. If this gap were reduced to 10% or less, Danish’s chances improve to 51.76%. If Danish could match Harrison, his likelihood improves to 54.22%. At this point, the seat can possible be considered somewhat safer. But as of now, Democrats are going to lose this seat.

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