Final Florida House Predictions

Unless there is some breaking last-minute poll released in the next 24 hours, this is the final predictions for the Florida House races.(NOTE: A new Quinnipiac poll came out with Crist up by 2%, but that did not change the seat totals).

Before I give my latest results, I must clarify something. The following numbers are not the percentage of vote that I predict a Democratic candidate will win. Instead, the number is a percentage of what chance the Democratic candidate has to win. For example, if Candidate A has 54.50 next to their name, that means that Candidate A has a 54.50% chance of winning their seat by one or more votes, not that they will win 54.50% of the vote. With that, here are my predictions for tomorrow. (Thanks to Beth Lerner for pointing out some clarity issues).

While the numbers have shifted slightly for the Democrats as Charlie Crist’s poll number slightly improved, the seats remain unchanged from the last prediction.

District Incumbent Chance D Win
8 Williams 100
9 Vasilinda 100
13 Fullwood 100
14 Jones, M. 100
20 Watson Jr. 100
43 Rangel 100
45 Bracy 100
46 Antone 100
48 Torres 100
61 Reed (Open) 100
62 Cruz 100
70 Rouson 100
81 Rader 100
87 Kerner 100
88 Powell 100
90 Berman 100
91 Slosberg 100
92 Clarke-Reed 100
94 Thurston (Open) 100
95 Rogers 100
96 Waldman (Open) 100
97 Moskowitz 100
98 Edwards 100
99 Jenne 100
100 Gibbons (Open) 100
101 Jones, S. 100
102 Pritchett 100
104 Stark 100
107 Watson, B. 100
108 Campbell 100
109 Stafford 100
113 Richardson 100
117 McGhee 100
26 Taylor 97.09
86 Pafford 91.68
84 Lee 77.82
49 Saunders 73.73
36 Murphy 66.88
30 Castor Dentel 60.23
68 Dudley 56.41
63 Danish 54.65
21 Perry 49.26
47 Stewart 47.08
112 Rodriguez, J. 45.61
89 Hager 37.5
114 Fresen 37.17
29 Clelland 36.69
41 Wood 34.57
42 La Rosa 33.68
27 Santiago 32.98
69 Peters 31.67
59 Spano 31.22
67 Hooper (Open) 30.68
38 Wetherford (Open) 29.89
103 Diaz Jr., M. 28.72
40 McKell (Open) 27.95
53 Tobia 27.61
65 Zimmerman 26.5
105 Trujillo 25.75
5 Coley (Open) 25.43
93 Moraitis 25.41
35 Schenck (Open) 23.59
115 Bileca 23.18
39 Combee 22.25
118 Artiles 19.57
66 Ahern 18.65
51 Crisafulli 16.63
2 Hill 16.32
72 Pilon 15.72
119 Nunez 15.46
1 Ingram 15.01
111 Gonzalez (Open) 13.84
71 Boyd 12.58
12 Ray 9.89
116 Diaz, J. 8.13
54 Mayfield 7.89
6 Patronis (Open) 5.48
3 Broxson 0
4 Gaetz 0
7 Beshears 0
10 Whiddon 0
11 Adkins 0
15 Davis (Open) 0
16 McBurney 0
17 Renaurt 0
18 Cummings 0
19 Van Zant 0
22 Stone 0
23 Baxley 0
24 Hutson 0
25 Hood Jr. (Open) 0
28 Brodeur 0
31 Nelson (Open) 0
32 Metz 0
33 O’Toole 0
34 Smith, J. 0
37 Corcoran 0
44 Eisnaugle 0
50 Goodson 0
52 Workman 0
55 Pigman 0
56 Albritton 0
57 Raburn 0
58 Figueroa 0
60 Young 0
64 Grant 0
73 Steube 0
74 Holder (Open) 0
75 Roberson 0
76 Rodrigues, R. 0
77 Eagle 0
78 Fitzenhagen 0
79 Calwell 0
80 Hudson 0
82 Magar 0
83 Harrell 0
85 Rooney 0
106 Passidomo 0
110 Oliva 0
120 Raschein 0
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