(Not a full-blown article, but just an examination of events today).
Today, Peter Schorsch at St. Petersblog wrote today that the Florida Democratic Party was targeting super-voters in Republican-leaning Senate district. However, the voters they seem to be targeting are super-voting Republicans. This tactic shows that the Florida Democratic Party, or the consultants that they are hiring, have very little, to absolutely zero, knowledge of voting behavior. One must wonder if the FDP, or their consultants, simply pull a campaign strategy out of a hat and say “hey, we will go with that”.
On a number of occasions, I have mentioned a book called The American Voter. Anyone who is a student of political methodology or voting behavior will know this book. Basically, it is one of the bibles of voting behavior. The main thesis of the book states that issues don’t matter, and that partisanship is the strongest indicator of vote choice. Furthermore, Campbell, Converse, Miller and Stokes (the authors of The American Voter) state that partisanship is handed down from generation to generation. Voters with strong identification with the Republican Party probably had Republican parents, and the likelihood of them voting Democratic is nearly zero. Even looking at polling results from exit or pre-election opinion polls, partisanship is one of the indicators that have the strongest relationship to vote choice.
It seems that there are people in the Florida Democratic Party, or their consultants, that fail to understand the basic fundamentals of voting behavior. Their strategy is, honestly, illogical. While a lot of literature has been published since 1960 which questions some aspects of the study, The American Voter‘s basic principles are still considered solid. Still, the FDP is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on something that will have no impact on any election. Partisan voters altogether usually support their candidates with 90% support, whether they are super-voters or not. In this case, it is even more highly unlikely.
The Florida Democratic Party continues to conduct what can be considered, at best, a misguided campaign strategy and, at worst, the Florida Republicans’ best political consultant.