Dwight Bullard lost by 9.9% in a district that Hillary Clinton won by 16.2%.
Last week, I looked at the Florida House districts to see how the presidential candidates performed. While the Republicans still had a decent advantage, we did see that Democrats under-performed in State House races compared to the top of the ticket. After the State Senate redistricting, Democrats were handed a favorable map. However, would the Democrats have performed as well in this political climate where Trump won the election? The answer is yes.
As was mentioned previously, there are some notes that need to be added when looking at this spreadsheet. So, I will just mention them again (cut and paste):
It should be noted that many of the districts are estimates. The reason for this is that one precinct might share multiple districts. Therefore, it is hard to determine how a presidential election vote exactly splits. On the worksheet provided here, the “Est Diff” shows how much of the vote overlaps between one district and another. In the overall scheme of things, this overlap probably did not impact the overall “winner-loser” scenario, as those with high overlap usually voted heavily for Clinton or Trump. However, some precincts were removed if they overlapped but had no population (example: precinct over water). Continue reading
If there is one thing positive about this year’s Florida Democratic Party chair’s race, it is that we are really seeing each candidate’s vision for Florida. DECs are taking the extra step to not only inform themselves about the candidates, but are sharing their forums with others. With that being said, the Orange County DEC has provided a valuable service by posting their interviews with all the FDP chair candidates online. Because of this, this site will not be sending out any questionnaires because the information being provided is already at a much higher level than it had been in previous elections for this position.
With that being said, the interviews held by the Orange County DEC showed us that Florida Democrats have vastly different candidates when it comes to this year’s chair race. In the past, it had always been “establishment vs. anti-establishment”. This year, we see real solutions and discussions about the future of the party. Luckily, we don’t hear the same talking points by all candidates, but have an olio of different viewpoints. Some performed quite well, and some not so well. So, here is a “grade” for each performance. Continue reading
Hillary Clinton won Eric Eisnaugle’s House District by 7.8%. #ToldYouSo
Over the last few weeks, I have been putting together precinct-level data so that I can do some number crunching. But before I get into testing hypotheses that I have formulated, I wanted to see how well Hillary Clinton did in Florida State House and State Senate Districts. Today, I have finished (sort of) my state house evaluation.
Before I get into it, it should be noted that many of the state house districts are estimates. The reason for this is that one precinct might share two, or even three, state house districts. Therefore, it is hard to determine how a presidential election vote exactly splits. On the worksheet provided here, the “Est Diff” shows how much of the vote overlaps between one district and another. In the overall scheme of things, this overlap probably did not impact the overall “winner-loser” scenario, as those with high overlap usually voted heavily for Clinton or Trump. However, some precincts were removed if they overlapped but had no population (example: precinct over water). Continue reading
Democrats, particularly in Florida, pride themselves on the fact that they have a great early and vote-by-mail system. And regardless of what you think about the Democratic Party structure, they actually do. Prior to votes being cast on Election Day, more Democrats had turned out to vote than Republicans in Florida. However, Election Day changed everything.
I decided to look at the votes that were cast before Election Day in every county except three, Escambia, Jefferson, DeSoto, because did not have data for them at all (though I will try to get the data in the coming days). Looking at all of the votes that were cast before Election Day, Hillary Clinton had 50.4% of the vote in Florida, with Trump only having 46.1%. That is a healthy 4.3% lead, with Clinton leading in Pinellas, St. Lucie, Duval, and even Seminole County. Here are the maps that show the breakdown of the vote. Continue reading
For quite a while, people have been wondering if Florida Democrats should create a “shadow Florida Democratic Party”? With Stephen Bittel moving closer to winning the FDP Chair position, the question becomes even more salient. Both progressives and those outside of the Tallahassee Bubble feel that they have been left out in the cold. As a result, Democrats continue to lose throughout the state. Even The Florida Squeeze is asking if this should be an option.
Well, over four years ago, I thought this might be the case. While sitting at a Buffalo Wild Wings near UCF, I put together a possible organizational structure of what a shadow Florida Democratic Party would look like. For years I have shared this with only a few people. Now, screw it, it is time that everyone should see so that we can get the conversation going, especially if we have another Tant-like person becoming the next FDP Chair.
So here is the plan. This is how disenfranchised Democrats in Florida can start a shadow party and returning to winning again. Enjoy.
Note: THIS LINK lists (as accurately as possible) the State committee members who will be voting for Florida Democratic Party chair in 2017. I will be updating this link as more information is available.
The 2016 election taught us a lesson. What it taught us is that facts don’t matter. The same applied to the last race for Florida Democratic Party chair. On this blog we tried to present the facts, like the fact that Allison Tant lobbied for a company that scrubbed 20,000 African-American voters off the voter roll (thus giving us President George W. Bush), and that financial interests were behind the FDP machine. However, the voters in that election didn’t listen to facts, but instead wanted to Make the FDP Great Again, and voted for Tant.
Another thing that we can learn from Republicans is that pressure works. After President Obama’s historic election in 2008, the so-called “Tea Party” organized and pressured moderate Republicans to become more right wing. They change local and state parties, they primaried incumbents, they took back Congress. Basically, they won. Continue reading
Over the course of the last three weeks, progressives and concerned citizens have been worried about the direction our country is about to take. Of course, Donald Trump is only our president-elect and has not been specific on policy issues. Still, the people he has selected to fill Cabinet positions and to run the West Wing are quite worrying. We will have to take a wait-and-see approach before progressives and concerned citizens can give any hard criticism about actual policy.
However, if we look at some of the actions Donald Trump has taken since being elected our next president, it is worrisome. If we put aside the political rhetoric, he seems to be using his new position for financial gains, which in itself could be a violation of federal law (which still seems kind of fuzzy from what I am reading). Still, the point is that President Trump might do a number of things that could call for him impeachment within his first two years. Continue reading
This is just a quick note that I wanted to put up here…whoever Democrats select for the FDP Chair, as well as Vice Chair, will have a say in who the next DNC Chair is. Therefore, if you want real change when it comes to both the FDP and the DNC, keep that in mind when selecting the next FDP chair…because this time is really matters. So, if you are a Bernie supporter, make sure you ask your candidates running for State Committeeman or woman who they would support for not just FDP chair, but DNC chair, as their vote can either move the Democrats as a whole in a new direction, of keep Democrats stuck in the past.
This time, Democrats need to get this one right.
Over the past few hours, we have been hearing about Michigan’s under vote problem. However, with most of the numbers now in, we are seeing that the State of Florida also had a massive under vote issue in the presidential election.
In 2012, the amount of under votes in the presidential race was 64,085. In 2016, that number has spiked to 160,601, a 250.6% increase in Florida’s under votes. If we look at the percentages, only .75% of people who cast their ballots in Florida did not vote in the presidential race. In 2016, that percentage has jumped to 1.71%. And yes, the current margin between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in Florida is 1.27%. Continue reading
Over the last few weeks, I have asked myself if we should get rid of the Electoral College. Was there a better alternative than what we have now? Should the Electoral College be reconfigured using the Wyoming Rule, where per district population is based on the smallest state instead of the 435 member rule? After examining a number of different options the answer was simple, move to a popular vote.
As I started thinking about it, I was able to get rid of one myth after another about why the Electoral College is a good thing. And as I was doing that, the Electoral College made less sense with each passing myth being busted. Slate listed a number of the myths in an article in 2012, and I am going to pick those apart one-by-one. Continue reading