Last week, I looked at the Florida House districts to see how the presidential candidates performed. While the Republicans still had a decent advantage, we did see that Democrats under-performed in State House races compared to the top of the ticket. After the State Senate redistricting, Democrats were handed a favorable map. However, would the Democrats have performed as well in this political climate where Trump won the election? The answer is yes.
As was mentioned previously, there are some notes that need to be added when looking at this spreadsheet. So, I will just mention them again (cut and paste):
It should be noted that many of the districts are estimates. The reason for this is that one precinct might share multiple districts. Therefore, it is hard to determine how a presidential election vote exactly splits. On the worksheet provided here, the “Est Diff” shows how much of the vote overlaps between one district and another. In the overall scheme of things, this overlap probably did not impact the overall “winner-loser” scenario, as those with high overlap usually voted heavily for Clinton or Trump. However, some precincts were removed if they overlapped but had no population (example: precinct over water).
Another note is that I am still waiting for Polk and Seminole County to finalize their numbers, as they still have their early and absentee voting in one lump sum and not divided into precincts. In the case of districts in Polk and Seminole, I use their precinct-level Election Day numbers. As far as a few districts in Broward County, I am still waiting to hear back from the SoE to see which precincts are located in these districts. Still, they are expected be strongly Democratic.
Of the forty Florida State Senate districts, nineteen of them voted for Hillary Clinton. In each of those districts, Clinton beat Trump by more than 5%. Democrats did field candidates senate candidates in every district that Clinton won, but managed to still lose four of those seats. The closest district where Clinton won the popular vote was District 18, where Clinton won by 5.5%. As for the State Senate Race, Dana Young defeated Democrat Bob Buesing by 6.8%. The rest of the defeats were in Miami-Dade County. In Senate District 36, Clinton is estimated to have beaten Trump by 13%, but the Democratic candidate, Anabella Grohoski Peralta lost by 10%. In District 39, Clinton is estimated to have beaten Trump by 9.9%, but Senate Democratic candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell lost by 8.4%. Even with the large precinct overlap, Clinton still had a large enough margin to have won this precinct quite handily. Finally, in District 40, where Clinton is estimated to have beaten Trump by 16.2%, Dwight Bullard lost by 9.9%. This district, in particular, should have been a slam dunk for the Democrats.
Interestingly, only one State Senate District, District 8, had a less than 5% margin between Clinton and Trump. Since this district did not have any overlapping precincts, the results are not estimates. Trump won 47.8%, with Clinton winning 47.5%. If we look at the votes, Clinton lost the district by 558 votes, which would have made the presidential vote by Senate districts a 20-20 split. However, Rod Smith lost the senate race in that district by 5.2%.